Under 2.5 Goals Is Our Serie A Pick As Milan Meets Inter Milan In Low Scoring Affair

Martin Green

Wednesday, January 27, 2016 2:28 PM GMT

Wednesday, Jan. 27, 2016 2:28 PM GMT

Long gone are the days when the Milan derby was a top of the table clash. Yet, we are ready to dig some value for our soccer picks and bring it to you so you can profit off this matchup.

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Free Soccer Pick: Under 2.5 Goals
Best Line Offered: at Bet365

 

AC Milan vs. Inter Milan Game Overview
Long gone are the days when the Milan derby was a top of the table clash. Both sets of fans have grown accustomed to mediocrity in recent years, and they are struggling for form once again this season. They like in fourth and sixth respectively, but few expect them to genuinely challenge Juventus and Napoli for the title, and this is reflected in their soccer odds– you can get +5000 on Inter to win Serie A and +50000 on Milan.

The home side drew with Empoli last time out to leave them 14 points off the top. They have been rocked by a fraud scandal off the pitch, and the match offered little positivity to distract their fans. Milan have struggled going forwards this season but remained pretty solid defensively. However, they are missing central defenders Rodrigo Ely and Philip Mexes through injury and struggling to fill the gap. First choice centre back Alex also limped off with an injury in the Empoli game, leading the club to halt the sale of Stefan Simic to Hadjuk Split in an effort to deal with the crisis. They conceded twice against Empoli, and that will be worrying to the Rossoneri. The good news is that their forwards are finally clicking and they have scored three goals in each of their last three games. Carlos Bacca in particular has been a good source of crucial goals.

The picture is slightly rosier at Inter, who sit eight points above their city rivals. But they have made a habit of dropping points of late, drawing with Carpi and Atalanta and losing to Sassuolo in their last three league matches and starting to lose sight of league leaders Napoli and Juventus in the process. They led the league for much of the season but have slipped down recently and will struggle to overhaul Juventus, who are in ominous form, notching up 11 wins on the bounce. The draw with Carpi in their last game was a particular low point as the minnows had 10 men and equalised with a last gasp strike from Kevin Lasagna. Boss Roberto Mancini called out his misfiring strikers after the match and said they need to be more intelligent in attempting to finish the plentiful chances teammates are creating for them.

 

Betting Analysis
In terms of playing staff, the two teams are pretty evenly matched, but Mancini’s experience perhaps gives Inter a slight edge over their fierce local rivals. Milan are the home side, however, meaning they will be able to pack the stadium both teams share, the San Siro, with their own fans.

It all points to the likelihood of a draw, which in truth would be catastrophic for neither side and acceptable to both. You can get +225 with Bet365 on the draw and that represents pretty good value. Milan are priced at +150 with most sportsbooks, and Inter are hovering around the +200 mark, and the fact that neither side has been made odds-on favorite is indicative of how tight the bookmakers feel it will be.

It is likely to be a tense game between these fierce rivals and you should not expect to see a high-scoring affair. The last game between them ended 1-1 and this fixture has not seen more than 2.5 goals since 2012, a run of eight low-scoring matches. Sky Bet is offering -137.5 on under 2.5 goals in this game and that looks like a very astute soccer pick.

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