UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira MMA Odds and Predictions

Contenders will collide at the UFC APEX on Saturday, as Holly Holm meets Ketlen Vieira in a pivotal women’s bantamweight matchup. Check out our Holm-Vieira picks ahead of this weekend’s main event.

In her second straight headlining bout, former bantamweight queen Holly Holm will look to make it three in a row against a fellow contender in Ketlen Vieira. After alternating between 135 and 145 pounds with mixed results from 2017 to 2019, Holm appears to have settled back in at bantamweight and now ends a 19-month layoff with back-to-back decision wins over Raquel Pennington and Irene Aldana.

Vieira was last seen going five rounds with Miesha Tate - the woman who dethroned Holm back in 2016 - this past November, with the Brazilian getting back in the win column via unanimous decision. In a return to the APEX, the 30-year-old aims for a second straight victory against an ex-champion, with her UFC record sitting at 6-2.

Will Vieira’s physicality and grappling earn her another highly coveted victory, or will Holm ride her footwork and varied striking to extend her winning streak?

Here are my Holm-Vieira picks and predictions for Saturday’s women’s bantamweight clash (odds via Caesars Sportsbook; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

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Holm vs. Vieira Fight Info

Date: Saturday, May 21, 7 p.m. ET (main card)TV: ESPN+Location: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, NV

Holm vs. Vieira Odds Analysis

Being a former divisional queen and the better-known commodity in this 135-pound matchup, Holm heads to Vegas as the betting favorite, with both Caesars and PointsBet listing her at -240 as of Wednesday evening. Others, such as FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook, have Holm as high as -250.

While the value on a Holm win isn’t the greatest, a victory on points for the former champ is a little more compelling, as Caesars and DraftKings are both offering -110.

As for the underdog, Vieira sits at +200, a line that would make for a decent payout should Saturday’s bill end with a changing of the guard of sorts.

Holly Holm Betting Profile

Holm was adrift after losing her crown to Tate in a shocking upset in early 2016, spending the next few years competing at both featherweight and bantamweight, and failing to reclaim UFC gold in both weight classes a combined three times.

The ex-champ’s last ill-fated bid came against Amanda Nunes in 2019, but she’s since rebounded by winning unanimous verdicts over Pennington and Aldana. Now 40 years old, Holm’s window on another title run is closing, but she can still hang with much of the bantamweight heap, and she should rely on lateral movement and her patented combination striking in a methodical showing against Vieira.

Ketlen Vieira Betting Profile

Vieira joined the UFC in late 2016 and has since amassed a solid promotional record of 6-2. The Brazilian’s resume boasts some impressive conquests, including wins over former title challengers Cat Zingano and Sara McMann along with Tate.

An aggressive bruiser with a smothering top game, Vieira often prefers putting her foes on the back foot, angling for takedowns, and staying busy from top control while hunting for submissions. Tasked with a more technically proficient striker in Holm, Vieira shouldn't waste any time trying to bring this one to the mat.

Holm vs. Vieira Picks

Holm (-240) ???Holm by decision (-110) ???

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Holm vs. Vieira Predictions

Holm (-240)

Holm’s made huge strides in the grappling department during her UFCtenure, and though she’s deceptively strong in the clinch and comfortable enough in transition, it’s the ex-champ’s striking that will lead her to an eighth victory in the Octagon.

With Vieira likely to claim the center of the cage and close the distance in pursuit of takedowns, expect the decorated boxer and kickboxer to cut angles, use lots of lateral movement, and find a home for her combinations while her overaggressive opponent gives chase.

It won’t be pretty, but Holm’s methodical ways should be enough to frustrate her foe and earn her a third straight W.

Holm by decision (-110)

Five of Holm’s seven UFC victories have come by decision, while Vieira’s gone the distance in six of her eight promotional showings. Both fighters will add to those totals on Saturday, with Holm likely to replicate her showing against Aldana and pick her moments to land combos while Vieira plays the bull to her matador.

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Holm-Vieira picks made 5/18/2022 at 10:09 p.m. ET.