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UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall MMA Odds and Picks

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall MMA Odds and Picks
Curtis Blaydes enters the Octagon before facing against Daniel Omielanczuk. Photo by Rey Del Rio/Getty Images via AFP.

A UFC heavyweight fixture will meet a lauded prospect in the promotion’s return to London, as Curtis Blaydes squares off against the surging Tom Aspinall to close out Saturday’s bill. Have a look at our Blaydes-Aspinall picks before this weekend’s event.

Blaydes is no more than a solid win or two away from a long-elusive title shot, and he’ll look to avoid relegation to gatekeeper duties at Aspinall’s expense when they meet on the latter’s home soil. The 31-year-old Blaydes has rebounded from a brutal 2021 knockout loss to Derrick Lewis with a dominant decision over Jairzinho Rozenstruik and a TKO of prospect Chris Daukaus.

Meanwhile, Aspinall has finished all five of his UFC foes, including a submission win over Alexander Volkov in his most recent bout in March at the O2 Arena, where he’ll return this Saturday.

With Blaydes eyeing a third straight W and Aspinall being touted as a rising contender, a victory for either man in this weekend’s main event would likely lead to a title eliminator.

Will Blaydes hand Aspinall his UFC comeuppance, or will the prospect wow his fellow Brits at home yet again?

Here are my Blaydes-Aspinall picks and predictions for Saturday’s UFC Fight Night main event (odds via Caesars Sportsbook and PointsBet; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Blaydes vs. Aspinall Fight Info

Date: Saturday, July 23, 3 p.m. ET (main card)
TV: ESPN+
Location: O2 Arena, London, UK

Blaydes vs. Aspinall Odds Analysis

If you can believe it, this matchup was a pick’em just last week, and the line has since shifted to leave the more seasoned Blaydes as the underdog, with Caesars listing him at +115. The streaking Aspinall sits at -146 with FanDuel Sportsbook as of Wednesday night, and if you’re banking on a 10th career KO/TKO for the lauded Brit, you’ll find it at a compelling +210 with the same sportsbook.

The lines on a decision and KO/TKO for the underdog Blaydes are both worth considering, with PointsBet offering them at +500 and +280, respectively.

Curtis Blaydes Betting Profile

A UFC heavyweight fixture who’s made 15 walks to the Octagon, Blaydes has faced more than a few elite heavyweights and earned a solid 11-3 promotional record (with one no-contest). The 31-year-old’s fallen to only his division’s two hardest hitters in Francis Ngannou and Lewis during his UFC stint, and he emphatically bounced back from last year’s loss to the latter with a wrestling-heavy shutout of Rozenstruik and second-round sparking of Daukaus.

A dogged wrestler and smothering top player, Blaydes can play the human blanket or open up with thunderous ground-and-pound when the opportunity presents itself. It’s likely he’ll rely on his takedowns and top control once more against an athletic striker in Aspinall.

Tom Aspinall Betting Profile

In just a handful of UFC appearances during the last two years, Aspinall has proven a veritable blue-chipper, if not a legit contender. The Englishman has earned all of his 12 pro victories by stoppage.

Though his first four walks to the Octagon came against middling competition, he passed his stiffest test with flying colors this past March by tapping a perpetual gatekeeper in Volkov.

A quick starter with fast hands and undeniable finishing instincts, the 29-year-old is at his most dangerous in the early stanzas, and I expect him to bring the fight to Blaydes from the opening bell in Saturday’s headliner.

Blaydes vs. Aspinall Picks

  • Blaydes (+115 via Caesars) ★★★
  • Blaydes by KO/TKO (+280 via PointsBet) ★★★

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Blaydes vs. Aspinall Predictions

Blaydes (+115)

Aspinall may indeed vie for the heavyweight crown in the near future, but his shot won’t come at Blaydes’ expense. Though a swift knockout via the favorite’s fast hands isn’t outside the realm of possibility, the experienced Blaydes can eat a bomb or two and always rely on his wrestling to put Aspinall on his back and chew the clock if things get hairy in the striking exchanges.

Furthermore, Blaydes’ own mitts aren’t to be underestimated, as he can finish fights on the feet and pound out his foes on the mat.

I expect him to strike his way into takedowns throughout this matchup to derail the Aspinall hype train and put some distance between his name and the dreaded gatekeeper label.

Blaydes by KO/TKO (+280)

Blaydes not only boasts an advantage in the wrestling department, but he’s also gone five rounds and claimed a handful of his 16 wins by decision. For his part Aspinall has yet to even see the third stanza in 14 fights as a pro.

Tasked with a fast starter, Blaydes will have to stay on his toes early. However, provided he can put Aspinall to work in the clinch or on the mat through the first couple of rounds, I trust Blaydes to be the fresher fighter in the later frames and ragdoll a fading Aspinall to the mat before recording a 12th career KO/TKO via hellacious ground-and-pound.

Where to Bet on Blaydes-Aspinall Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

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Blaydes-Aspinall picks made on 7/21/2022 at 12:03 a.m. ET.