UFC Picks: What Will It Take To Bet Alexis Davis?

Swinging Johnson

Thursday, June 19, 2014 6:11 PM GMT

Thursday, Jun. 19, 2014 6:11 PM GMT

Alexis Davis is scheduled to be the next lamb to the slaughter when she takes on the invincible Ronda Rousey for the UFC Women’s Bantamweight title but can the UFC odds soar high enough to take a chance on this big underdog?

So What Will It Take to Bet Davis?
Short answer – someone else’s money. Yeah, I know it’s a wiseguy answer but it’s not far from the truth when you think about just how dominant Rousey has been during her three-year reign of terror in mixed martial arts. Rousey has submitted or KO’ed all but one opponent in the very first round. The only combatant to last longer was Miesha Tate who had the audacity to make Rousey work for her money until she was ultimately submitted by Rousey via armbar 58 seconds into the third round of a scheduled five round championship title match.

The UFC odds opened on Rousey at approximately 1-10 in most offshores although Pinnacle proved to be the most prescient of the majors as they opened Rousey at a more reasonable (for those who don’t mind laying the lumber – or make that an entire forest) 1-7. Since that time the UFC odds have dropped fairly dramatically with WilliamHill.com plummeting from Rousey -1000 to where it sits as of this writing at -588. If that doesn’t give the chalk eaters cause for pause then they walk the border of fearless and reckless - fearless if Rousey wins and downright stupid if she loses. So why the drop in all of the major offshore shops? Let’s try to find out.


Is Davis a Threat?
Let’s be clear, any man or woman who has ascended to the rarified air of the UFC has to be considered a threat any time they walk into the Octagon. Therefore, Alexis Davis is no slouch and has a puncher’s chance… just like all of Rousey’s previous victims. But what makes Davis so uniquely qualified to dethrone the queen of women’s MMA more than all the others that have come before her?

Personally, I’m not sure there’s an answer to that question other than the obvious - nothing. She has registered a 16-5 record in her seven year career with two of those five losses coming at the hands of former Strikeforce Bantamweight champion Sarah Kaufman. However, it was a vastly improved Alexis Davis who battled Kaufman and lost by a majority decision in March of 2012 versus the neophyte who succumbed by way of TKO to Kaufman in April of 2007. Since that defeat Davis has reeled off five straight victories with her latest by split decision over Jessica Eye where Davis was installed as a -150 favorite.


How Does Davis Win?
Well here’s the rub ladies and gentlemen. Davis is a black belt in not only authentic Jiu-Jitsu but BJJ as well. Her pedigree and her entire arsenal is geared towards the ground game which is unfortunate because nobody rules the mat like Ronda Rousey. If she decides to stand and trade with Rousey it will not bode well either as the champion is becoming even more inclined and proficient at throwing the leather.

However, the industry wide drop in UFC odds on Rousey does give me a reason to mull Davis as a viable betting pick. Who knows why there is early action on this rather pedestrian underdog? It may have more to do with Rousey herself. If she is not training but becoming distracted by her sudden star power then it may be a case of the sharps conjecturing that she may be taking this fight too lightly.

I’m not sure if Davis at +750 is worth a value bet as the wizened gamblers are fond of saying but at the current UFC 175 odds of +445 I am even less inclined. If Davis does win then she wins by a flash knockout because there is no way she beats Rousey on the judge’s scorecards – if she lasts that long.

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