UFC Picks: Three Picks for UFC on FOX 6

Brian Mendez

Thursday, January 24, 2013 7:24 PM UTC

Thursday, Jan. 24, 2013 7:24 PM UTC

How likely is it that Demetrious Johnson successfully defends his featherweight title this weekend against season 14 TUF winner, John Dodson?

Also, find out why it may be worth backing a pair of Duke Roufus’ fighters featured on the main-card at UFC on FOX 6.

UFC FOX 6 Betting Report: Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson vs.  John Dodson

January 26th from the United Center-Chicago, Illinois hosts the UFC’s featherweight championship between Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson against season 14 TUF winner, John Dodson

After initially upsetting T.J. Dillashaw, Dodson has gone 2-0 against Tim Elliot and former number 1 featherweight, Jussier Da Silva, which due to the relative shallowness of the UFC’s newly acquired 125 pound division, has earned him an unusually quick title shot against the champion this weekend.

A further look into Dodson’s two most recent victories reveals he was horribly overpriced against (-500) Tim Elliott before showing significant value for UFC betting in his TKO victory over (-250) Jussier da Silva.

Against Elliott, he looked out of rhythm as Tim’s frenetic pace kept him off balance during the final two rounds.  By the third, he was getting bullied by hard left hands from his rangier opponent, ultimately losing him the round on all three judge’s scorecards’.

Five months later, against Jussier da Silva, Dodson then showed tremendous betting value by knocking out a formerly ranked top 5 featherweight. After patiently feeling his opponent out during their first round, Silva was eventually put down with a well-placed hook to the body, earning Dodson the second official TKO of his career in the UFC.

Taking on the champion, Dodson’s greatest hurdles are overcoming the speedy combinations and extremely high output that’s routinely churned out by Demetrious Johnson- two factors that have made Johnson one of the top 5 most undervalued fighters in the UFC over the last 3 years.

That same extreme value on the champion first showed up against Damacio Page & Norifumi Yamamoto, both of who Johnson opened above +200 against. He then went on to upset (+120)Miguel Torres before being massively underpriced (-130) in a rematch with Ian Mccall, And despite repeatedly defying the odds, he was again overlooked during last September’s title fight as a +220 dog to Joseph Benavidez.

The way Dodson looked in the Elliott fight hints that Johnson’s pace may eventually start to fluster him down the stretch of this match. While he certainly has all the necessary skills to hang  wherever the fight goes- might even be a better defensive wrestler & definitely   packs the bigger punch- I expect him to give the fight away in the final two rounds as Johnson’s longer, more refined combinations  begin to convincingly take each round more and more as the fight progresses.  

UFC Prediction: Demetrious Johnson -210 @ pinnacle.com


Pettis vs. Cerrone + Koch vs. Lamas

In perhaps the most competitive fight on the card, UFC odds makers have installed Anthony Pettis as a small betting favorite (-110) over Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone.

Anthony’s recent inactivity- hasn’t fought since last February- is the only reason I can think of as to why he’s not priced much closer to -160 over the more defensively flawed Cerrone.

We’ve seen it countless times in the past where lesser threats like Ed Ratcliff, Paul Kelly and most recently Melvin Guillard were able to either land hard shots or completely drop Cerrone with a punch he probably should have avoided. It hard to say how much of that has to do with his willingness to eat shots from his opponents, but the fact remain that he gets hit far too often at this stage in his career.

When I last mentioned this fight Pettis was a small underdog and has since climbed as high as -115 at pinnacle. So if you like a tiny play on Pettis in this match, as do I, I’d suggest locking him up now before there’s another significant push on him at the sportsbooks.  


And finally, we have Erik Koch who opened at -133 over Ricardo Lamas.

Personally, this is easily my largest play on the card.

Much like his teammate Pettis, Koch is coming off a similar layoff where he hasn’t fought in over a year; otherwise, I’d have no problem pricing him at -275 over the increasingly overrated Ricardo Lamas.

As I’ve said in the past, the general competitiveness represented in the current line is an absolute fallacy created by name-value of Ricardo’s two most recent victories- a second round submission over Cub Swanson & a decision victory against Hatsu Hioki.

Prior to subbing Cub in the second round, he was losing the fight and was fortunate to capitalize on the often time reckless aggression of Swanson. And against Hioki, it wasn’t until the Japanese fighter faded badly in the last two rounds that Ricardo was able to turn the tide of that fight, which in my mind had more to do with Ricardo benefiting from the consistent inconsistency we’ve seen over the course of Hioki’s career.


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