Zabit Out Classes Stephens And Askren Mauls Lawler

Thursday, February 28, 2019 1:54 PM UTC

Thursday, Feb. 28, 2019 1:54 PM UTC

Two big favorites are going to come through and we are going to combine them for a nice parlay rather than taking them on a prop.

Record: 12-11-0 for +2.62 units

UFC Fight Night 235
Free UFC Pick: Zabit & Askren
Best Line Offered: Pinnacle
Bet $100 to win $84.44

Parlays are a great way to find value in MMA. Lines will get out of hand in MMA and favorites will get bet past the point where they will hold value. Usually you would flip and bet the dog in that case, but there are circumstances where even though the favorite it too big they are still going to win. I think we have two cases exactly like that at UFC 235.


Zabit Magomedsharipov vs Jeremy Stephens

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Zabit Magomedsharipov is 16-1 and is a phenomenal striker. He is extremely tall and long for the 145 pound division and he is a master of controlling distance and space. He is fighting long time UFC contender Jeremy Stephens who is looking to rebound off of his crushing loss to Jose Aldo in July of 2018. Stephens has the power to crush anybody in the division if he can connect, so he has a puncher's chance, but it’s hard to land with power when facing a longer opponent who will spend the majority of the fight outside your range.

This is a step up fight for Zabit, but I think it is one he is well equipped to handle. He has a stylistic match up that plays very well in his favor simply due to the physical style of fighter Stephens is. Stephens is explosive and lands flying knees and over hand punches, but a fighter like Zabit will be outside of his range the majority of the fight and I can see him coasting to an easy three round decision.

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Ben Askren vs Robbie Lawler

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The second leg of our parlay is Ben Askren who is making his long awaited UFC debut against former champion and legend Robbie Lawler. Askren was potentially the best MMA fighter outside the UFC. He is 18-0 and a dominant wrestler with a top game nobody could handle. He has 6 TKOs, 5 submissions, and 7 decision vicitories making him very diverse in the way he can win a fight and that makes him perfect for our parlay. Rather than taking him on a prop we protect ourselves by picking him to win straight paired with Zabit.

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#MidnightSnack

Ben Askren wasn't always a killer on the mat. pic.twitter.com/OPnElwjBWs

— FloWrestling (@FloWrestling) 28 de fevereiro de 2019
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Robbie Lawler has faced some of the best names MMA has to offer and while he is only 36 he has a much longer fighting age. He has a 28-12 record and has been fighting since he was 18. He recently lost to current champion Tyron Woodley by brutal KO in 2016. Lawler hasn't looked the same since that fight. He did get a win over Donald Cerrone in 2017 but he lost to former lightweight champion Rafael Dos Anjos via decision in December of 2017.

Robbie has taken the last year + off to have multiple surgeries done and recover. Surgery is never a great thing, but in a top level MMA fighter you are expected to recover and do it quickly. We may not be getting a prime 100% Robbie Lawler here and with a compromised body I do not see how he is going to defend the kind of takedowns Askren will attempt. I expect Askren to grind Robbie for 3 rounds and win a one-sided decision to close out our parlay

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