UFC Fight Night 139: Perry to Crush Fan Favorite Cerrone

Clint MacLean

Sunday, November 4, 2018 2:01 PM UTC

Sunday, Nov. 4, 2018 2:01 PM UTC

UFC 230 is in the books and if you tailed my plays you made a nice chunk of change. UFC FN139 is an exciting free card and we should take note of a few early lines.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3668392, "sportsbooksIds":[238,19,1096,93,169], "LineTypeId":2, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

UFC 230 is in the books and I gave out Jacare at +160 and DC by submission at +125. Both cashed and here's hoping that some of the readers here tailed those plays!

We are in the high season for MMA where we are getting spoiled with cards basically every weekend through the holidays, which is GREAT for MMA bettors and enthusiasts because we get to find value and line our pockets just that much more often than normal! Let's get into the matches and take a look at the early lines to see if we can spot anything we like.

The main event of Frankie Edgar vs "The Korean Zombie" Chan Sung Jung was a spectacular main event and I was looking very closely at it, however, unfortunately Frankie has been injured and has withdrawn from the fight. Luckily for MMA fans though he has been replaced by Yair Rodriguez who is a very exciting young prospect and has been away from the sport due to contract issues with the UFC for far too long. The early line has Chan Sung Jung as the favorite and Yair as a +130 underdog. I was planning to bet The Korean Zombie as a huge under dog against Frankie, but I am not sure how I feel about him as the favorite here. I would expect that due to the hype surrounding Yair that he will be the chalk by fight time. I personally need some more time to analyze this fight, but if you like Yair with that dog money I would suggest you take him sooner than later. I would expect that to dry up.

The co-main event is Mike "Platnum" Perry vs Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone and this fight is by far the most interesting on the card. Per SBR Odds it looks like Bookmaker is the only book with a line out at the time of writing this article and it has Perry as a -220 favorite and Cerrone being a +177 dog. There is some serious bad blood in this fight and it could be a vicious fight.

[/]{"component":"video", "type":"youtube", "url":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/IvvDuN4DEJ0", "videoSize":"Large" }[/]

I do not expect Perry vs. Cerrone to go to decision, so I am going to keep my eye out for a total line when that drops. Cerrone is fighting at 170 because he likes the challenge and at the tail end of his career he doesn't like cutting the weight to get down to 155 where he has fought the majority of his career. Perry is big solid 170 pound fighter and will have a strength advantage. Both fighters are finishers and I would give the skill and technique edge to Cerrone, HOWEVER, Perry has started training at Jackson's MMA which is Cerrone's old gym and that was a bad break up. Hence the drama. This fight started out friendly as a call out from Perry who looked up to Cerrone and both guys just like to scrap, but it quickly turned into a love triangle with Perry dating Cerrone's ex by training at the gym that basically got "Cowboy" where he is today. I think it's lined appropriately and with the bad blood I'll expect it not to go the distance. Keep an eye out for that line.

Some other interesting lines are Luis Pena "Violent Bob Ross" is finally back from injury against Michael Trizano and per BetOnline is a -350 favorite due to his spectacular performance on The Ultimate Fighter and his spotless 3-0 record. I don't know if he should be that big of a favorite, but I don't know that I like Trizano here either. We may need to circle back to this one during the week when the props drop.

Ray Borg 11-3 is fighting perennial contender Joseph Benavidez 25-5 at 125 lbs and this is a changing of the guard kind of fight. Borg's most recent fight was in a title fight against DJ which he lost by highlight reel submission in the 5th and final round of the fight. Prior to that he had won 5-6, but we have not seen him fight since. Benavidez was riding a 6 fight win streak before dropping a close split decision to Sergio Pettis in June and his last win prior to that was over current 125lbs champion Henry Cejudo. Ray has been dealing with his son's health issues since he was born.

[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "

After 4 brain surgeries It amazes me how much this kid smiles, he truly is my motivation to push through anything. #borgstrong pic.twitter.com/AGwqSv1Oqb

— Ray Borg (@tazmexufc) October 15, 2018
\n\n"}[/]

We are VERY happy to report that his son was able to get the medical attention he needed and is doing well at this time. That HAS to be a massive weight off of Ray's shoulders. The question is: How much has his son's illness affected him?

Did he use it as motivation and train harder this whole time? Was he away from the gym to be by his family's side? Now that his son is healthy is he taking a deep breath and relaxing a bit or is he coming back down to earth and ready to resume his attack on the UFC's 125 pound division? These are massive intangible factors in a fight and he could be taking some serious baggage into that cage with him on Saturday night. Pinnacle has the line basically at pick 'em with Ray -105 to Benavidez being a slight favorite at -109. Hopefully this information will help you make a betting decision on this match, but given Joseph was grinding hard and Ray was dealing with all this I would lean to Benevidez at -109.

comment here