Free MMA Picks: UFC 163 Main Event
Let's analyze this featherweight showdown and the UFC Odds set forth.
Jose Aldo (22-1, 13 KO's, 2 Subs) vs. Chan Sung Jung (13-3, 3 KO's, 8 Subs)
Jose Aldo is a beast. He hasn't lost in over seven years and handled former lightweight champion Frankie Edgar convincingly in his last title defense. Aldo may be a BJJ expert but his Muay Thai is ferocious as he seamlessly blends his hand strikes with booming leg kicks. The champ is lethally precise and will launch an array of kicks from unusual angles. He is a walking powder keg at 145 and anyone who looks to trade toe-toe with Aldo is walking through a minefield.
The Korean Zombie (or KZ for short), has a two inch height advantage and a 4 ½ inch reach advantage. He will be an interesting opponent for Aldo because he will continue to press forward forcing the champ to dart inside in order to connect cleanly. Unlike some of Aldo's previous opponents, KZ will not retreat when stung. George Roop is the only one to floor and fade KZ via a booming kick to the head that KZ left completely open as he was pressing the action. But that was three years ago and against an opponent who was a rangy featherweight at 6'1" versus Aldo's featherweight friendly 5'7" frame.
Jung will be looking to take this fight to the mat if his attempts at ranged attacks turn sour. Jung will continue to press Aldo until they are in a clinch which has been a successful strategy for KZ in the past. His deliberate attempts to bring the fight up against the cage allow him to unleash elbows, knees and ultimately leg sweeps to take the fight to the floor. Unlike the champ, Jung is masterful at submissions. However, Aldo is equally adept at avoiding submissions and routinely negates any advantage his opponent may possess on the ground. Aldo is highly skilled at wriggling free when mounted and getting back to his feet. If Jung can control Aldo on the ground, he will control the tempo of this fight.
Ultimately we must look at how each fighter stacks up and bet accordingly with our UFC picks. Ironically, the strategy Jung employs which earned him the moniker of "Korean Zombie”, may be his undoing. Jung takes a licking and keeps on ticking. He doesn't stop, he presses forward just as zombies do in the movies when they take a double-barreled shotgun blast to the chest. Jung is the same way but Aldo possesses more than a shotgun. The champion has bazookas for legs and grenades for fists. Jung will be wise to avoid living up to his name in this one.
But before this awesom action, we have UFC 162!
After perusing the UFC odds, I am a bit stunned to see Aldo as such a huge betting favorite. As of this writing Aldo is -750 and the challenger is +450. While I expect Aldo to emerge victorious the fight is closer than the odds appear. Aldo is a quick starter but has had hiccups when the fight lingers beyond the third round. Aldo was in complete control until in his epic battle against Mark Hominick at UFC 129 but the rugged Canadian would not go away and Aldo had to survive a blistering fifth round to win a unanimous decision. So with that I will advise a small wager on what I consider a value play while keeping in mind there is no value in losing.