Jon Jones vs Thiago Santos
Saturday, July 06, 2019 – 10:00 PM EDT
Free UFC Pick: Jon Jones
Recommended Sportsbook: 5Dimes +380
Jon “Bones’ Jones has ruled the light heavyweight division for 8 years and somehow he is just now coming into his prime as a fighter. Jon may be the best mixed martial artist to ever fight in the cage and as much as I am not a fan of him as a person and his out of the cage antics I have to respect what he does once the cage door closes. Jon has a very unique body type that gives him physical advantages over his opponents. He is a high level wrestler which allows him to dictate where the fight takes place. He has developed a striking game that is unmatched, he is creative mid-fight, and his greatest strength is his mind. Jon Jones is always several steps ahead of his opponents and has a game plan to dice them apart.
Thiago Santos is a murderous power puncher who moved up to 205 from 185 and discovered he was just as if not more effective at the higher weight class. He has an improved gas tank and his power and speed appear to be heightened if that’s at all possible. No fighter has been able to locate the hole in Bones’ armor to this point and there isnt much faith that Thiago will be the man to do it. Against literally anybody else he is a massive favorite and you take him on the KO prop because thats all he does.
Jon can out grapple the black belt if he wants to. Jon can strike at range and simply avoid the bombs that Santos attempts to throw his way if he wants to. Jon can more than likely head kick KO Santos if he feels like it. If Jon is over looking a dangerous opponent of Thiago’s calibur then he could set himself up for a crushing loss, but I dont see that happening. Jon in a recent interview talked about how he likes to beat people at their own game. He discussed striking with Alexander in their fights to prove a point and grappling with Daniel Cormier. If that is the attitude that Jon has coming into this fight then you can bet it will be a striking affair.
What Jon does best is death by 10,000 cuts. He will completely dissect your game and he knows your every tendency better than you do. Similarly to what he did to Anthony Lionheart Smith Jon has the ability to make his opponents run out of weapons and they have nothing to do but protect themselves. If you want a fun sweat go ahead and throw $5 on Thiago to pull off the upset, but dont expect it to win. You can lay the -850 on Jon if you want, but I personally dont like laying that kind of wood on anybody even the GOAT. I would say the best value here is to take a poke at the decision prop. Thiago is more durable at 205 and if Jon wants to outclass him for 25 minutes and play with his food like he did Smith then that is exactly what he is going to do and getting almost 4-1 that Jon will do exactly what we’ve seen him do unless he has bad blood seems like a pretty good deal to me.