UFC Picks: How to Turn a Profit Betting on Ronda Rousey in UFC 193

Swinging Johnson

Sunday, November 1, 2015 7:00 PM UTC

Sunday, Nov. 1, 2015 7:00 PM UTC

Ronda Rousey is the preeminent force in MMA. Including her in your UFC picks means having to lay heavy lumber. Do we keep betting her & crossing our fingers or against and rip up ticket after ticket?

Yeah, She’s That Good
If you are reading this, then I am fairly certain you are quite familiar with the prodigious accomplishments of Ronda Rousey. The 135-pound Queen of Mean is quite affable outside the Octagon, but once she steps inside it is game on, and only one female fighter alive has lasted beyond five minutes. That fighter is Miesha Tate, who had already been tapped out by Rousey in the first round prior to their December 2013 clash where she took Rousey (or the other way around) into round No.3 only to be submitted once again via armbar.

The most intriguing aspect of Ronda Rousey's evolution is that she has cultivated a punishing striking game. In her early matches she relied on her world class judo skills to take her opponent to the mat, slap on an armbar and call it a day. Rousey was a one-trick pony of sorts, but her trick was so stunningly lethal that the public never tired of it. Through her first eight matches, she won in exactly the same manner, first round tapout by armbar. But in three of her last four matches she has won via knockout. And it is for that reason why Ronda Rousey is now even more dangerous than ever before.


So How Do We Bet Her?
Including Ronda Rousey as a straight bet in your UFC picks is simply too big a risk no matter how good she is - think Buster Douglas vs. Mike Tyson circa 1990. The UFC odds makers are asking for -1300 to -2200 depending upon whom she's fighting. You can certainly declare she's been a veritable ATM in all 12 of her fights but the risk is so beyond the pale that it's hardly worth encouraging that betting behavior no matter how superior she is to the rest of the women's bantamweight division.

The fact of the matter is that she is human and this rapid rise to stardom has unquestionably brought her fame and fortune but there is baggage that comes with that as well. In her upcoming fight with former women's boxing champ Holly Holm Rousey had this to say:

"I think that she'll really enjoy her life a lot more [if she loses]," Rousey said Tuesday at a UFC 193 media day at her Glendale Fighting Club gym. "The life of a champion, I think isn't for everybody. And I think that the life of a contender, it's a lot nicer in a lot of ways. A lot of these girls don't realize until they're the contender and they get all that extra pressure put on that they don't really want that life. I think this kind of environment isn't what Holly would like. I hope that she takes the money that she gets for losing and has a great life that she would like a lot more than this one."

Now I'm no psychologist but isn't that what the shrinks call transference? Rousey is simply channeling what she feels onto someone else and that someone just happens to be Holly Holm. Could it be that Rousey is getting overwhelmed by her celebrity? Let's understand that Ronda Rousey is not just an icon to MMA fans but has broken through to the mainstream and is featured in everything from commercials to major motion pictures.

That is my caveat emptor to anyone who will continue to lay two grand to make a C-note. With that said Rousey should steamroll Holly Holm. A first round submission or even a KO is the only way this one will finish. I doubt Holm could even out-strike Rousey at this point. Holly Holm doesn't even have a puncher's chance because when she was a boxing champion only nine of her 33 wins were by KO. This one is easy and bet Rousey to stop Holm in round No.1. which will cost you only about -300 versus -1700 to win the fight outright. This is why we make UFC prop bets.

The only woman on the planet I would pick to go more than one round with Rousey is Cristiane "Cyborg" Justino, the IFC women's featherweight champion. When that fight does eventually happen it will be Rousey via submission because that is one gal even Rousey doesn't want to trade punches with. Take Rousey by submission but do not name a round.

All the others in between will simply be fodder for her legacy. Unless she becomes bored or sabotages herself in order to escape the limelight Rousey will continue to punish her opponents. Rousey in Round No. 1 for me thank you and skip the heavy lumber.

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