UFC Picks: Gadelha Will Find Redemption In TUF 23 Finale Against Jedrzejczyk

Jake Walker

Sunday, July 3, 2016 11:33 PM UTC

Sunday, Jul. 3, 2016 11:33 PM UTC

Claudia Gadelha has a chance at redemption and an UFC title when she meets Joanna Jedrzejczy. Is she the value UFC pick on Friday's TUF 23 Finale?

Claudia Gadelha and Joanna Jedrzejczyk previously met in a close title eliminator in 2014. Jedrzejczyk won that fight via split-decision and became a beloved champion, defeating Carla Esparza to win the UFC Women's Strawweight Title. Since then, she has defended it against Jessica Penne and Valerie Letourneau. Gadelha on the other hand has been under the radar but she won her last fight against Jessica Aguilar at UFC 190 in August.

This rematch promises to be Jedrzejczyk's toughest title defense to date. Can Gadelha ruin Jedrzejczyk's perfect record and get some revenge?

There's been bad blood between these two fighters for almost two years and their stint as opposing coaches on The Ultimate Fighter 23 hasn't helped. Gadelha has revenge on her mind ahead of this rematch while Jedrzejczyk will try to make her third successful title defense.

After rewatching their first bout, it's clear that the judges were totally off. To me, that fight indicates how this rematch can go. Both fighters have improved since then, that can't be denied, but their styles remain the same.

Jedrzejczyk is a technically sound pressure striker that has solid takedown defense. She is 11-0 but her cardio can be a liability, even though it seems to be improving over time. Her mental game is one of her biggest strenghts and it can make a difference on Friday because she loves to get in her opponent's head and there's a lot of history with Gadelha. It's up to Gadelha to ignore her and focus on her fight plan.

Claudia Gadelha's Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu credentials are impressive. She is an exceptional athlete and grappler and her striking game has been solid over her last fights. Like Jedrzejczyk, cardio was a major issue, but she has improved it.

Betting Analysis
I see this fight as a toss-up. Jedrzejczyk is the better striker but she might have issues if the fight goes to the mat. Gadelha has been impressive and even though she hasn't stepped into the Octagon since last August, I like her chances of getting revenge here.

I'm taking Claudia Gadelha at +175 UFC odds. This fight might have too many unknowns, such as Joanna Jedrzejczyk's improvements, but there's decent betting value on this UFC pick because the lines should have been around even.

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UFC Pick: Claudia Gadelha +175
Best Line Offered: at bet365

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