UFC Picks: Condit vs. Lawler Will Kick Off New Year With Fireworks

Swinging Johnson

Sunday, December 20, 2015 5:35 PM UTC

Sunday, Dec. 20, 2015 5:35 PM UTC

UFC 195 will start 2016 with a bang as Robbie Lawler defends his welterweight crown against Carlos Condit. Let’s see what he UFC odds makers are offering on this epic clash of styles.

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UFC Pick: Carlos Condit to Win
Best Line Offered: +115 at 5Dimes

Carlos Condit (30-8, 15 KO’s, 13 Subs)
If the judges awarded style and technique points Carlos Condit would never lose a match. His kicking ability is aesthetically pristine and when they hit the mark can be devastating. Condit has dropped three of his last five fights dating back to his championship match with George St. Pierre in November of 2012. He followed that up with another loss to the soon-to-be welterweight king Johny “Bigg Rigg” Hendricks but got back on the winning track with a fourth round TKO of Martin Kampmann. His next opponent was top contender Tyron Woodley where Condit suffered a knee injury and the fight was ruled a TKO loss for the Natural Born Killer. In his last outing Condit stopped Thiago Alves in Round 2 of their fight at UFC Fight Night back in May of 2015.

Condit comes from a wrestling background but has incorporated his black belt in Gaidojutsu as well as his brown belt in BJJ to become one of the most complete fighters at any level. His 15 KO’s and 13 submissions are evidence that Condit can beat opponents in a bomb throwing stand up contest or a ground game chess match. Condit has been KO’ed only once in his career courtesy of Tyron Woodley and submitted three times. However it should be noted that Condit has not been tapped out since 2006 when former UFC fighter Pat Healy stopped him in the third round in a non-UFC event.


Robbie Lawler (26-10, 20 KO’s, 1 Sub)
Robbie Lawler is like a fine wine, he just gets better with age. Lawler was always a tough out for the classier fighters but never quite good enough to capture a title in the big leagues off MMA. However, if learning from one’s mistakes is the hallmark to a championship career then Robbie Lawler is the poster boy for that ad campaign. Since Lawler transitioned into the UFC from the now defunct Strikeforce organization he has been on a tear. He has rattled off seven victories in eight matches with his only loss to Johny Hendricks by decision in UFC 171 for the vacant welterweight strap.

The 170 reigning pound champion would go on to rack up two wins within a span of four months of his loss to Hendricks which earned him a rematch nine months later and he made it count. Robbie Lawler and Johny Hendricks went to war for five non-stop bloody rounds and Lawler emerged victorious via a split decision to finally claim the coveted UFC welterweight belt. Ruthless Robbie Lawler has defended his title once since winning where he starched the uber talented Rory MacDonald in the fifth round of their championship match back in July of 2015.


Betting Analysis
Robbie Lawler is a fighting machine. He has no problem standing and trading which is why his fights are always amongst the baddest and the bloodiest. He is like that barroom brawler that nobody can knock down only Lawler has world class talent to go along with that tough guy attitude. However, he won’t beat Carlos Condit on January 2nd and here’s why.

Carlos Condit is a slick, smooth cage technician and throws punches and kicks at ridiculous angles. He can take a punch with the very best but will not simply stand and trade to prove just how tough he is. Remember when he fought Nick Diaz back in February of 2012, it was Diaz who became irate that Condit wouldn’t play his game and trade haymakers. Condit won that fight by unanimous decision because he can outthink and out-strategize his opponent. Diaz simply wants to throw bombs and see who is left standing.

Robbie Lawler is Nick Diaz 2.0 at this stage of the game. The champion did lose to Diaz back in 2004 but Lawler has gotten better while Diaz has remained pretty much the same dangerous, though not quite elite, fighter that he was back then. My angle on this fight is that Condit is a superb kickboxer and strike defender. He has magnificent ground skills and that combination is too much for a fighter like Lawler who simply outworks and out-toughs many of his top tier opponents. The UFC odds makers have made the natural Born Killer a small underdog in this fight and that is simply another reason to back him. Carlos Condit is a riddle for bomb throwers like Lawler and one that the champion will not solve on January 2nd.  

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