The bigger they come, the more quickly they fall. Our latest batch of UFC picks features two heavyweights who probably won't make it past the first round this Saturday.
It's not easy money, but it's close. We've been crushing our betting picks here at the home office, mostly by focusing on the props market and the Noble Threefold Path of women, heavyweights, and the lighter divisions (Featherweight and lower, preferably lower). Our last batch of picks for UFC 201 went swimmingly; the Ian McCall-Justin Scoggins fight got scrapped, but Karolina Kowalkiewicz beat Rose Namajunas by decision (+250), and the fight between Anthony Hamilton and Damian Grabowski didn't come close to going the full three rounds (–260).
Next up: UFC Fight Night 92 this Saturday (10:00 p.m. ET, FS1) in Salt Lake City. Lots of “unknown” fighters on this card, and nobody smaller than Featherweight, but there are two fights that fit our betting template reasonably well. Let's see if we can squeeze some more value out of these UFC odds.
Heavyweight: Chase Sherman vs. Justin Ledet
No better place to start than the opening preliminary bout on UFC Fight Pass. Sherman (9-1 lifetime) and Ledet (6-0, 1 NC lifetime) are both making their debuts in the Octagon; Ledet is the –140 favorite, being the more seasoned of the two – although Ledet also put his MMA career on hold for nearly four years to take up boxing (he went 5-0). He came back in February a much larger fighter, moving up from Light Heavyweight in the process.
There might be some value in Sherman, aka the Vanilla Gorilla, as the +120 underdog. He's a raw fighter with a hint of upside, having made his debut in 2014. But we're here for the props, specifically, the “Fight doesn't go to decision” prop at Sportbet. Heavyweights usually don't go the distance, and of the 17 combined career bouts between these two gentlemen, exactly zero went to the judges' score cards. Only one of those fights even made it past the first round.
Free UFC Pick: Fight doesn't go to decision (–280)
Best Line Offered: at SportsInteraction
Women's Strawweight: Maryna Moroz vs. Danielle Taylor
Moving up to the main card, we've got a hastily thrown-together bout between Moroz (7-1 lifetime, 2-1 UFC) and Taylor (7-1 lifetime). It was supposed to be Moroz vs. Justine Kish, but Kish pulled out on July 22 with a broken finger. Taylor will be making her UFC debut; at 5-foot-nothing, she's seven inches shorter than Moroz, with a 7-inch reach disadvantage. Yikes.
There are a few different ways we could approach this fight. We can't say for sure where the profit margin lies, but from a logical standpoint, any result other than an Taylor KO/TKO seems likely. Taylor does have knockout power – that's how she won her two Strawweight title defenses at King of the Cage. But Moroz is a solid technical fighter whose only loss was by decision to Valerie Letourneau at Fight Night 74. This is a fair bit of chalk, so keep your bet size small, and may the Octagon be with you.
Free UFC Pick: Any result other than Taylor KO/TKO victory (–590)
Best Line Offered: at Sportbet
Record: 7-0 ML, 1-1 Totals, 6-1 Props (+13.85 units)