UFC on Fox 27: How Does Souza by Submission Sound?

souza brunson

Andreas Hale

Friday, January 26, 2018 3:40 PM UTC

Friday, Jan. 26, 2018 3:40 PM UTC

UFC on Fox 27 Saturday night features two contenders in the middleweight division as Jacare Souza and Derek Brunson headline the card from Charlotte.

UFC on Fox 27Free UFC Pick: Jacare SouzaBest Line Offered: Pinnacle

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After the heavyweight and light heavyweight titles were successfully defended last week at UFC 220, UFC on Fox 27 on Saturday features fighters jockeying for position in the middleweight division as Jacare Souza and Derek Brunson headline the card from Charlotte. There are several other fights on this card that could pay out if you bet right, but let’s start with the main event.

The last time these two met was in Strikeforce in 2012 when Jacare demolished Brunson in 41 seconds. Since then, Brunson has shown marked improvement, while it appears that Jacare’s best years might be behind him. With the fighters meeting once again, could history repeat itself? Jacare enters as a -130 favorite, while Brunson has seen his underdog status shrink from +140 to +110. But allow me to let you in on a secret: This won’t be all that different from their first fight.

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Simply one of the best.@JacareMMA looks to move to the top of the 'Most Finishes' list on Saturday. #UFCCharlotte pic.twitter.com/22rgKTFXyG

— UFC (@ufc) January 26, 2018

Brunson has shown great improvement with his striking with his last six victories all coming by way of knockout. As for Jacare, both he and Brunson share losses to current champion Robert Whittaker and top contender Yoel Romero. But Brunson has arguably been more impressive. Nevertheless, the former Strikeforce middleweight champion’s ground game is still one of the best in the sport, and I fully expect him to suck Brunson into the ground game and eventually work his way into scoring a submission.

The co-main finds a pair of Featherweights battling to climb the ladder that Max Holloway currently sits on top of as Dennis Bermudez faces Andre Fili. Bermudez has had a rough go with a 2-4 record in his last six fights. Fili has been alternating wins and losses, going 4-4 in his last eight.

Despite his record, Bermudez (-155) has the exact recipe to ground out Fili (+135). Fili has looked pretty remarkable when he finds an opponent who will stand and trade with him. But Bermudez likely won’t stand in front of Fili very long before attempting to get the ground on the canvas. If and when that happens, Bermudez should eventually find has way back into the win column.

Also, you should try your luck with Niko Price, who is a -300 favorite against George Sullivan (+250). But rather than bet either fighter to win, go with the fight ending in 'under' 1.5 rounds at +150. Despite losing to Vicente Luque by submission, Price has a penchant for finishing fights early. Sullivan also looks for the finish, which could put him at risk against the heavy-handed Price. I fully expect one of these two fighters to be asleep in the first 7.5 minutes.

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