UFC on FOX 25 Best Bet: Light as a Feather

Jeremy Kennedy

Jason Lake

Wednesday, July 19, 2017 7:42 PM GMT

Wednesday, Jul. 19, 2017 7:42 PM GMT

While most people will be waiting for the main event, Jeremy Kennedy and Kyle Bochniak will be delivering value for your UFC picks at Saturday’s debut card in the L.I.

Have I ever mentioned how much I love it when a plan comes together? We found some deep betting value in last week’s UFC Fight Night 113 prelims, taking the opening fight between Leslie Smith and Amanda Lemos to go UNDER 2.5 rounds at a tasty +190. Smith scored the TKO at 2:53 of the second round. Money money money, hubba hubba hubba.

Next up is UFC on FOX 25 this Saturday (8:00 p.m. ET) at the Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum in Long Island, and once again, you’d better tune in for the preliminary card on UFC Fight Pass (4:00 p.m. ET), or you might miss out. The feature attraction is a Featherweight bout between hot Canadian prospect Jeremy Kennedy and Boston’s own Kyle “Crash” Bochniak. And yes, we’ll be going to the props market again for our UFC picks.

 

Thai One On

It is somewhat tempting to go with Kennedy (10-0 lifetime, 2-0 UFC) straight-up at –225 on the UFC odds board. The former BFL Featherweight champion is already well-versed in multiple styles at age 24, with a purple belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and valuable experience in Muay Thai that he gained while overseas in Thailand. Kennedy’s also the larger man in this fight: four inches taller at 5-foot-11, with a one-inch reach advantage.

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Also Kennedy told me he's already planned another Vegas trip in August to use the UFC Performance Center and also train at Xtreme Couture

— James Lynch (@LynchOnSports) July 14, 2017
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Bochniak (7-1 lifetime, 1-1 UFC) represents the toughest challenger Kennedy has ever faced, but he doesn’t bring the same resume to the Octagon. What Bochniak does bring is a powerful right hand, and outstanding takedown defense – a critical element in this fight, given how strong Kennedy’s ground game is.


This clash of styles is also why we’re seeking out the props market instead of taking Kennedy for the win. Featherweights already tend to go the distance in their matches (54 percent of the time, according to FightMatrix), and that’s what happened in each of the first four combined UFC fights for these two gentlemen. There isn’t much difference in the price if we take OVER 2.5 rounds at –255; that small premium will protect us from any judging shenanigans or a late stoppage. Make it so.

Free UFC Pick: OVER 2.5 rounds (–250)
Best Line: at Bet365

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