UFC on FOX 24 Betting Preview: Not So Rosy?

Jason Lake

Friday, April 14, 2017 12:41 AM UTC

Friday, Apr. 14, 2017 12:41 AM UTC

Rose Namajunas is one of the more popular fighters in the Octagon, but that only makes her a worse pick for Saturday’s strawweight bout at UFC on FOX 24 with Michelle Waterson. 

Rose Namajunas is one of the better female fighters in the UFC. She has black belts in karate and taekwondo, she’s excellent at submissions – and we still faded Namajunas in her last fight against Karolina Kowalkiewicz at UFC 201. Not only that, we went for the gusto and had Kowalkiewicz by decision (+250) on the props market. Another winning UFC pick for the good guys.

We’ve got a similar situation brewing this Saturday at UFC on FOX 24, live from Kansas City. Namajunas is the favorite again, this time against Michelle “The Karate Hottie” Waterson; Namajunas is available at -140 on the UFC odds board as we go to press. Does Waterson have what it takes to pull off yet another upset in the wild Women’s strawweight division?

Real Genius

She’s no slouch, that’s for sure. Waterson (14-4 lifetime, 2-0 UFC) is the former Invicta FC Atomweight champion and she’s undefeated in the Octagon after victories over Angela Magana (+415) and Paige VanZant (-125). She also trains with Jackson-Wink, the best of the best, and Mike Winklejohn called her a “genius” after she put away the popular VanZant with a rear-naked choke last December.

Like Kowalkiewicz, Waterson is very good at striking and maintaining distance, but there’s less incentive for us to go to the props market and look for a decision win. The underdog has her own impressive array of submission holds, earning nine of her 14 victories via tap-out. Namajunas (5-3 lifetime, 3-2 UFC) has four wins by submission and one by decision, that over Tecia Torres (+130) at UFC on FOX 19.

Michelle Waterson plans to become the first woman to defeat Joanna Jedrzejczyk https://t.co/sc1vZrNArZ pic.twitter.com/ktZMv1T4eC

— Women's MMA Rankings (@WMMARankings) April 11, 2017

Saturday’s fight certainly could go the distance – that’s a tempting pick when dealing with the strawweights, where 45 of 71 fights (63.4 percent) have gone to the judges’ scorecards. But we’re going with the underdog and the moneyline in this matchup. There was some talk earlier this year that Joanna Jedrzejczyk would defend her strawweight title against Waterson at UFC 211 in May; instead, Waterson will have to go through Namajunas first. We’ll buy that for a dollar.

Free UFC Pick: Waterson +125Best Line Offered: Bookmaker

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3179365, "sportsbooksIds":[93,123,1096,19,169], "LineTypeId":2, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

comment here