UFC on FOX 12: Robbie Lawler vs. Matt Brown and More

Swinging Johnson

Saturday, July 5, 2014 3:16 PM GMT

A title elimination fight between Robbie Lawler and Matt Brown is featured on this card but where is the value in our UFC odds for this welterweight clash and a few of the other headliners?

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Robbie Lawler (23-10, 19 KO's, 1 Sub) vs. Matt Brown (19-11, 12 KO's, 5 Subs)
Upon perusing the UFC odds in this welterweight tilt, Ladbrokes is dealing the least favorable number on the favorite Robbie Lawler at -303 while Bookmaker has a more appealing line at -250 if you're a chalk eater. You can count me among those who find chalk a delicacy, at least in this fight, because Robbie Lawler is one tough and talented hombre who gave current UFC Welterweight king Johny Hendricks a run for the vacant crown at UFC 171. It was a bad ass brawl for the gaudy gold strap and one that Lawler could have won had he not run out of gas in the fifth and final round.

If you're a Ruthless Robbie Lawler fan then there's not much you don't know about his skill set and style but to the uninitiated, this 32-year-old veteran of the cage wars has more than a few aces up his sleeve. He is a dynamic counterpuncher and his frenetic, herky-jerky approach is reminiscent of Smokin' Joe Frazier during his heyday of the 1970's. Lawler is not limited to a fistful of dynamite like many knockout artists but is surgically precise when landing his jabs and wields a wicked arsenal of stinging Muay Thai.

Lawler's opponent Matt Brown may be at his career best entering this match. Brown has reeled off seven consecutive victories and all but one ended by knockout. His last fight was perhaps his most impressive as he starched Brazilian mat master Erick Silva in the third round and rewarded his backers as a +180 underdog in UFC odds. Brown has a chin of granite, having never lost via knockout but succumbing in nine of his 11 losses by way of submission. Getting choked out or submitted courtesy of a joint lock won't be an issue in his battle against Lawler as the Ruthless One has only one submission on his resume and that occurred almost nine years ago. 

The only way Matt Brown wins this fight is if he simply outworks Lawler. Brown has a swarming, relentless style that can wear opponents down. He's also got a chin that has withstood all comers thus far. However, it is in fact Robbie Lawler who has fought against a better caliber of competition and came within a whisker of wearing the UFC Welterweight belt that was worn for so long by the legendary George St. Pierre. Lawler's striking is cleaner and more accurate while his kicks are devastating. Matt Brown may well learn how it feels to go to sleep by the sheer frequency and ferocity of a steady barrage of Lawler leather.

UFC Pick: Robbie Lawler -250 at WilliamHill.com.

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Anthony Johnson (17-4, 11 KO's, 0 Subs) vs. Antonio "Lil Nog" Nogueira (21-5, 6 KO's, 6 Subs)
If you watched Anthony "Rumble" Johnson manhandle Phil Davis a few months ago at UFC 172 then you have to think twice if you're going to fade this rising star in the light heavyweight category. Johnson was a beast and his three round domination of the former top contender was impressive to say the least. Johnson has finally found his ideal weight class after bouncing around from the welterweight division to as high as heavyweight at one point.

The 30-year-old former JUCO National Wrestling champion may have made his bones on the mat in his younger days but he's all about throwing white hot leather these days. Johnson has notched seven consecutive victories and will be looking to put the injury prone Antonio "Lil Nog" Nogueira out to pasture in this one.

UFC Picks: Johnson at Bet365.com. when lines become available.