UFC Fight Night Free Picks: Two Strong Leans to Play & Win

Swinging Johnson

Monday, October 12, 2015 4:12 PM UTC

Monday, Oct. 12, 2015 4:12 PM UTC

Dustin Poirier takes on Joe Duffy in the main event of UFC Fight Night. Let’s examine the UFC odds on this and another feature fight as we attempt to cash in our UFC picks.

Dustin Poirier (18-4, 9 KO’s, 6 Subs) vs. Joe Duffy (14-1, 4 KO’s, 9 Subs)
Dustin Poirier comes into this meeting with Joe Duffy fresh off an impressive first round knockout of Yancy Medeiros at a 159 ½ catchweight due to Medeiros being unable to make the 155 pound cut. It was Poirier’s second consecutive KO since he returned to the lightweight division after being dismantled by the Interim featherweight champ Conor McGregor in the first round of their featured fight at UFC 178 in June of this year.

Four of Poirier’s last five victories have come by way of knockout and the extra 10 pounds he is now carrying have made him bigger and better. The native of Lafayette, Louisiana holds a brown belt in BJJ but lately he has been all about the thunder and lightning in his fists. Two quick knockouts over solid opponents have him moving up the lightweight ladder and a victory over Duffy could nudge him into the top 10 before it’s all said and done.

Joe Duffy is a relative newcomer to the UFC but a first-round TKO over Jake Lindsey followed by an opening round submission of Ivan Jorge at UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs. Leites in Scotland earned him a Performance of the Night bonus. This will be a terrific contrast in styles with Poirier relying on overwhelming striking power while Duffy’s submission game is sublime as evidenced by a 38 second choke out of Conor McGregor back in 2010. After his lone MMA defeat in 2011 Duffy took a three year respite from the sport and registered a 7-0 record as a professional boxer but returned to Cage Warriors Fighting Championship to continue his career before the UFC signed him in 2015.

I have to confess when I analyzed this matchup I was surprised that the UFC odds makers had installed Duffy as such a big favorite at -245. Granted the fight is taking place in his native country of Ireland which should be a big boon to his chances with the judges but this contest doesn’t strike me as one that will go to the scorecards. Poirier has 13 fights in the major leagues of MMA and is now fighting at a weight that suits him perfectly. While Duffy has a superior ground game it should be noted that Poirier has lost only one fight by submission. I believe this will be an all-out brawl and Poirier has the striking chops as well as a wealth of experience fighting top ranked opponents to stop Duffy in this one.I will back Poirier as my UFC pick.

UFC Pick: Poirier +205 at BetOnline

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Stipe Miocic (13-2, 9 KO’s, 1 Sub) vs. Ben Rothwell (35-9, 20 KO’s, 12 Subs)
All I can say is don’t go to the refrigerator when these two big boys hear the opening bell because it could be over in an instant. Rothwell has won his last three fights by knockout but those opponents were not exactly the iron of the heavyweight division. Big Ben scored a first-round KO over an aging Brandon Vera who got his ticket punched out of the UFC after he was starched in the third round of their August ’13 fight at UFC 164. Rothwell then stopped a fading Alistair Overeem via TKO in September of last year. In his last fight Rothwell was getting picked apart by Matt Mitrione until he inexplicably went for a takedown and Rothwell seized the moment and submitted Mitrione with a gogo choke to end the evening early.

Miocic is a different breed of cat from the fighters Rothwell has recently defeated as he is equipped with an excellent wrestling base due to his tenure as an NCAA Division 1 wrestler and tremendous power in both hands. Miocic rebounded from a unanimous decision loss to one of the very best heavyweights in the business, Junior dos Santos, to TKO Mark Hunt in his most recent match. Though Rothwell always has a puncher’s chance I don’t think he will be able to weather the ferocious storm headed his way.

UFC Pick: Miocic -307 at Pinnacle

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