UFC Fight Night 77: Main Card Odds, Predictions & Free Picks

Swinging Johnson

Thursday, October 15, 2015 5:11 PM GMT

UFC titans as Vitor Belfort & Dan Henderson meet on November 7th in San Paulo, Brazil. After reviewing the UFC odds we analyze this one as well as the light heavyweight Teixeira & Cummins.

Vitor Belfort (24-11, 17 KO's, 3 Subs) vs. Dan Henderson (31-13, 15 KO's, 2 Subs)
This is the rubber match of a trilogy between two MMA legends. Way back in 2006 the two met in the Pride organization with Henderson prevailing via unanimous decision. Fast forward to 2013 and the pair locked up again now under the banner of the UFC and it was a stark turnaround with Belfort stopping Henderson courtesy of a lethal head kick that closed the deal only 1:17 into the opening round.

On Saturday November 7th the Belfort and Henderson will meet for the third and most likely final time. Both fighters are well past their respective primes with Belfort now 38 and Hendo a very fit but middle-aged 45 years-old. If you review their recent history you will find that Belfort has won five of his last seven fights with his only two losses coming in championship matches to Jon Jones at light heavyweight and then to Chris Weidman in the middleweight category. Certainly there is no shame in losing to two of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world.

Meanwhile, Dan Henderson has registered a record the polar opposite of Belfort's last seven fights. Belfort has gone 5-2 since August of 2011 while Henderson has registered a 2-5 mark over his last seven fights which spans from February of 2013 to the present. Henderson kept his employment status with the UFC in check when he nailed Tim Boetsch with a sneaky right cross that staggered the Barbarian and who was summarily swarmed leading to a 28 second KO in the first round.

If you included Belfort in your UFC picks back in November of '13 when he met Henderson for the second time you were immediately rewarded. Within 77 seconds the fight was over and the irony is that the beginning of the end came when Henderson was struck with the same sneaky left by Belfort that he used on Boetsch in his last fight. On paper Belfort is only an inch taller but with Henderson's crouching style that height advantage seems vast. Belfort was a -230 favorite when they last met and the UFC odds makers have installed him north of -300 this time around. But the fact is Belfort still has something left in the tank while Henderson got lucky in his last match to meet a fighter in Tim Boetsch who was already in a freefall and in the twilight of his MMA career.

UFC Pick: Belfort -309 at Pinnacle

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Glover Teixeira (23-4, 13 KO's, 7 Subs) vs. Patrick Cummins (8-2, 4 KO's, 2 Subs)
Here we have a BJJ master in Glover Teixeira versus a former NCAA Division wrestler in Patrick Cummins. Reviewing the stats we can clearly see that Cummins averages over seven takedowns per fight while Teixeira far less adept with 2.81 per contest. But when the fight hits mat is when Teixeira's sublime BJJ skills come into play. In addition Teixeira has fought the top contenders and has the devastating striking power to complement his submission game.

Both of Cummins' losses have come by way of knockout and with 13 KO's on his resume it looks to me like Teixeira could finish him exactly the same way. Look for the talented BJJ master to thrill the fans in his native country. If by chance this does go to the judge's tables it would have to be a lopsided mismatch for Cummins to win in San Paulo.

UFC Pick: Teixeira -335 at BetDSI 

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