UFC Fight Night 126: Can Medeiros Lasso the 'Cowboy'?

Andreas Hale

Thursday, February 15, 2018 1:50 PM UTC

Thursday, Feb. 15, 2018 1:50 PM UTC

The UFC hits Austin, Texas, on Saturday for Fight Night 126, where Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone will look to halt a three-fight skid against the surging Yancy Medeiros in the main event.

UFC Fight Night 126Free UFC Pick: Under 2.5 RoundsBest Line Offered: 5Dimes

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Despite Donald Cerrone’s recent troubles in the Octagon, he currently sits as as -160 favorite over Yancy Medeiros in the main event of UFC Fight Night 126 in Austin, Texas, on Saturday. The rationale here is pretty simple: Cerrone’s last three fights have come against some stellar competition with Robbie Lawler, Jorge Masvidal and rising star Darren Till all taking home victories against the former WEC lightweight champion. Even though Medeiros is riding the wave of a three-fight winning streak, the Hawaiian’s resume isn’t close to as decorated as Cerrone’s. Because of this, Medeiros is a +140 underdog.

It’s difficult to tell if Cerrone has simply had too many wars and the damage is starting to pile up, or if he’s just running through a rough patch. Granted, he’s never suffered a losing streak like this in his career, so there’s certainly something there. But will Medeiros be able to expose him? His grueling war with Alex Oliveira is the reason why he’s in this position against Cerrone as just about everyone expects to see a war. And they are probably right, which is why it’s very possible we see a finish in 'under' 2.5 rounds. When Medeiros falters against top-tier competition, it’s usually inside of the distance. Both Jim Miller and Dustin Poirier have stopped the Hawaiian in the first round. Over the course of their past six fights combined, Cerrone and Medeiros have had five end with a knockout or submission. Chances are that we see that happen again in Texas.

Currently, you can find the under at around -110, which is quite promising.

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How does this one end?@CowboyCerrone and @YMedeiros have a history of making quick work of their opponents. #UFCAustin pic.twitter.com/KazzRaagHu

— UFC (@ufc) February 13, 2018

In the co-main event, Derrick Lewis will look to rinse himself of the embarrassing 4th-round TKO loss to Mark Hunt last June when he faces Marcin Tybura, who lost a unanimous decision to Fabricio Werdum in his last fight. Oddsmakers see Tybura as the favorite and he’s hovering around -140, while Lewis’ stock has taken a dip and the result is him being a +125 underdog. The formula for a Lewis win is quite simple: get a knockout or get knocked out. Since 2011, Lewis has had only one decision in 18 fights. Interestingly enough, Tybura has never been knocked out in his professional career. He did suffer a loss by TKO in 2015 but that was due to a doctor stoppage. Lewis only knows one speed and has one path to victory here. But the line for the fight ending in 'under' 2.5 rounds is only at -105. That is probably because both fighters have proven to be durable for much of their career.

It’s another heavyweight fight, which means the fight isn’t very likely to go the distance. However, Tybura might be a decent fighter to lean on for a straight up victory considering his history and that he doesn’t have the same cardio issues that Lewis has. Either way, siding with a finish in 'under' 2.5 rounds is the way to go here. And if you like Lewis, you should definitely pair him with the 'under.' Tybura could squeeze out a decision, so I would stay away from pairing him with the under and would prefer to pick him to win straight up.

One other fight to keep a close eye on is the Francisco Trinaldo vs. James Vick lightweight matchup. Vick has been exceptional with a 12-1 record and is riding a three-fight winning streak with all three victories coming by knockout or submission. Trinaldo is coming off of a decision victory over Jim Miller but lost prior to that against Kevin Lee. Trinaldo is a pretty significant underdog here at +190, while Vick is hovering around -225. As great as Vick has been, his one knockout loss to Beneil Dariush causes some concern. Trinaldo is a three-time Brasilia state kickboxing champion and could find a well-placed shot that could suddenly end Vick’s night. For the most part, Trinaldo has won by decision (he also holds a victory over Medeiros) and hasn’t proven to be much of a knockout artist. There’s no official pick here, but Trinaldo is a lean considering the value of the return.

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