UFC Betting: Menacing Combatant Robbie Lawler Becomes Our Pick When Confronting Tyron Woodley

Robbie Lawler

Swinging Johnson

Monday, July 25, 2016 8:56 PM GMT

Welterweight champ Robbie Lawler is one of the toughest men on the planet but he will have his hands full as he battles Tyron Woodley in defense of his title. Let’s review the UFC odds on this epic feature fight and cash a ticket.

Tyron Woodley (15-3, 5 KO’s, 1 Sub)
The Chosen One is 5-2 in the world’s premier MMA organization and if he can capture his sixth victory it will be with a gold belt around his waist. Woodley dropped a controversial split decision to Jake Shields in a lackluster affair at UFC 161 in June of 2013 but has triumphed in four of his last five bouts since. After knocking out a fading Josh Koscheck in the opening round at UFC 162, Woodley defeated the Natural Born Killer, Carlos Condit, in what resembled a potential Fight of the Year match until Condit’s knee gave out and was unable to continue.

Woodley would go on to lose his next bout with top contender Rory MacDonald by unanimous decision but rebound with a thorough starching of judo master Dong Hyun Kim in August of 2014. In his last bou,t Woodley locked horns with up-and-comer Kelvin Gastelum and the fight was reminiscent of the lethargic showing between him and Jake Shields a year-and-a-half earlier. Gastelum was hospitalized the previous day with flu-like symptoms and was far from the fighter who claimed the TUF 17 championship. Woodley eked out a narrow split decision at the catchweight of 180 and now he gets the title shot that he has pined for throughout his career.

 

Robbie Lawler (27-10, 20 KO’s, 1 Sub)
Ruthless Robbie Lawler is undeniably one of the toughest men ever to grace the Octagon but that doesn’t mean he walks among the legends of the sport. He deserves his championship crown based on being able to sustain intense pressure and bone-jarring strikes as well as reciprocating that same brand of punishment to his opponents.

In March of 2014 Lawler squared off with Johny Hendricks for the vacant welterweight title and dropped a unanimous decision. Since that time he has reeled off five straight victories including a rematch with Hendricks that saw him claim the UFC strap via split decision. Lawler’s first title defense was a fifth round TKO of Rory MacDonald that garnered 2015 Fight of the Year honors, followed by his most recent outing where he earned a victory via split decision over Carlos Condit in what was the Fight of the Night in January of this year.

 

Betting Analysis
Despite Tyron Woodley’s amateur wrestling background, he has not employed those skills to a large degree during his MMA tenure compared to his penchant for standing-and-trading. The notable exception is his outstanding takedown defense but Woodley is more known for his striking than grappling. He is a powerful puncher with devastating knockout power when he can get off a clean shot. However, it should also be noted that of his 18 MMA fights he has but five KO’s to his credit.

His opponent, Robbie Lawler, is a menacing combatant and a relentless pursuer. The knock on Lawler is that he takes too much punishment and eventually all those blows to the head will have a deleterious, if not fatal, effect on his performance. But I don’t believe that bell will toll in this fight with Woodley. The Chosen One has not fought since January of 2015 and his ring rust most definitely plays a part in siding with Lawler in my UFC picks for July 30th. The UFC odds makers have installed the champion as a north of -200 favorites but Lawler will attack, attack and attack as he always does and wear down the less tenacious Woodley. I wouldn’t be surprised if Lawler notches his 21st KO in round No. 3 or sooner.

 

Free UFC Pick: Lawler-205 
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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