UFC 155: Post Betting Report
At UFC 155, Cain Velasquez emphatically recaptured the heavyweight strap on Saturday with a 5 round decision victory over former champion,Junior Dos Santos.
Considering the tilted action from bettors on Dos Santos heading into the fight, the 5 round decision for Velasquez clearly came as a favorable outcome for the sportsbooks.
By the time the UFC betting lines closed at Bookmaker, it had gone from an opening price of -135 to a closing number of -220.
We personally backed Dos Santos with our UFC picks, because we figured he’d stuff the takedown while catching Velasquez with big shots on the way in. And for the first few minutes of the fight at least, that was exactly what happened.
If anything, Cain’s ability to rapidly tire Junior out with his relentless pressure was horribly underrated on our part. By the third minute of the first round, Junior was already stumbling into the cage with his mouth open and his arms down by his waist.
Despite the massive edge in cardio many were giving Cain prior to the bout, there was simply no way for us or anyone else to anticipate that he would have Junior that far depleted just minutes into the fight.
The 5 round decision for Cain also left UFC bettors hitting big over in the prop market, as Velasquez wins by decision at +865 & Fight goes to decision at +400 both ended up cashing.
The co-feature of the night saw Jim Miller take on Boston’s Joe Lauzon.
Being the more defensively responsible fighter & possessing the crisper boxing attack in this match-up was the reason we advised throwing Miller in a parlay with Dos Santos prior to this fight. And as was expected, Miller set the tone with his striking early while securing top position several time en route to a decision victory.
The lightweight scrap between Miller and Lauzon eventually went on to win fight of the night honors and left bettors cashing their prop plays on Miller wins by decision +200 & Fight starts round 3 at -137.
Our most profitable play on the card, meanwhile, was a +$800 hit on Myles Jury at +200 over Michael Johnson, which at the end of the night only marginally cut into our -2600 in losses on Dos Santos and Pickett.
Heading into the fight, we mentioned how we thought there was value on Jury if he opened at anything over +165. As it turns out, he was released at +270 and held at around +200 until close.
Ultimately, it was the timing of Jury’s takedowns and his all around grappling control that would allow him to dominate the fight. Johnson looked just a step behind him for most of the match and was never really able to establish his preferred striking range throughout the fight.