UFC 215 Odds: Can 'Mighty Mouse' Be Stopped?

johnson borg

Andreas Hale

Thursday, September 7, 2017 6:51 PM UTC

Thursday, Sep. 7, 2017 6:51 PM UTC

The UFC has its first major PPV in more than a month as UFC 215 heads to Edmonton on Saturday with history on the line. Demetrious Johnson will look to break Anderson Silva’s record for most title defenses when he faces Ray Borg in the main event for Johnson's UFC flyweight title.

The main event of Saturday's UFC 215 in Edmonton finds the seemingly invincible flyweight champion Demetrious Johnson as a -1250 favorite over Ray Borg (+800). This is a fight you must avoid betting straight up. Johnson has been rolling since being crowned the flyweight champion and hasn’t lost since he was a bantamweight in 2011. He has dominated his opponents and defeated guys much better than Borg.

However, it is very likely that "Mighty Mouse" will look to continue his finishing ways against a guy who has never lost inside of the distance. The line for the fight going under 4.5 rounds is currently hovering around -120, which is a bit surprising considering that Johnson is a massive favorite and has finished six of his last nine opponents. Borg may be tough, but that line is a bit too tasty to pass up. 

Meanwhile, Amanda Nunes will look to be the first woman since Ronda Rousey to successfully defend the UFC women’s bantamweight title when she is challenged by Valentina Shevchenko in the co-main event.  The rescheduling of Nunes’ first title defense against Schevchenko hasn’t changed the minds of oddsmakers as the two fighters remain close to a dead heat with Shevchenko the slight favorite at -130 to Nunes being a +110. This fight is intriguing on a number of levels, starting with the fact that these two met not too long ago at UFC 196 with Nunes taking a unanimous decision.

The biggest takeaway from the fight was that Shevchenko came on strong in the third round when it appeared that Nunes showed some fatigue. With this being a five-round fight, Nunes’ conditioning is the biggest question heading in. There are two ways to go about this fight: You either roll with Nunes at the +110 with the fight going under 2.5 rounds at +115, or you take Shevchenko at -130 and the over at -135. Nunes is a relatively fast starter who has finished four of her last five fights (with the only exception being Shevchenko) in the first round.

As a matter of fact, all eight of Nunes' previous stoppage victories have come in the first round, and she’s only come out victorious once on the judges’ scorecards (Shevchenko) during her UFC tenure. If you like Nunes, you have to take the under. On the other hand, Shevchenko is a more measured fighter who has yet to finish a fight in the first round since arriving in the UFC in 2015. She’s a more measured fighter who paces well and controls distance. Simply put, if she can weather the early storm from Nunes, she’s in position to take the decision and become the new champion. 

The Neil Magny vs. Rafael dos Anjos fight also has some betting intrigue. Although the former UFC lightweight champion dos Anjos currently finds himself as a roughly -200 favorite, there are a few reasons to think that Magny could make good on his +160 underdog status. RDA recently ended a two-fight losing streak by defeating Tarec Saffiedine in his welterweight debut back in June. Although he looked good, there are physical issues that Magny could use to his advantage.

Magny has a significant height (6-3 to 5-8) and reach (80 inch to 70 inch) advantage which, if used properly, should give dos Anjos a wealth of problems. And Magny is known to use his physical advantages to derail shorter fighters. As long as Magny doesn’t become sloppy with his striking, he’ll be able to keep dos Anjos from bulling his way inside. Facing opponents with length has often been a challenge for RDA, and Magny will, by far, be his tallest opponent. 

UFC Free Pick: Johnson-Borg 'Under' 4.5 RoundsBest Line Offered: Bookmaker

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