UFC 205 Picks: McGregor vs. Alvarez

Conor McGregor

Swinging Johnson

Wednesday, October 12, 2016 6:49 PM GMT

The irrepressible Conor McGregor will fight reigning lightweight champ Eddie Alvarez for the title on Saturday, November 12th at Madison Square Garden. Let’s check out what the UFC odds makers are hanging on this title tilt.

 

Conor McGregor (20-3, 17 KO’s, 1 Sub) vs. Eddie Alvarez (28-4, 15 KO’s, 7 Subs) Prediction

You may never see a featherweight champion stepping down in weight to fight a lightweight champion but that’s what we have in store on November 12th. As you already know, Conor McGregor’s last two fights have been at welterweight when he went toe-to-toe with Stockton bad boy Nate Diaz at 170 pounds. McGregor was gassed out and ultimately tapped out in their first contest but came away with a unanimous decision in the second match.

The welterweight division is clearly not ideal for McGregor despite his epic win over Diaz at 170 pounds but now he will eschew defending his 145-pound title as featherweight champ for an opportunity to wrest the 155-pound belt from Alvarez. The reigning lightweight champ possesses an edge when the fight hits the mat, as evidenced by the seven submissions on his record, but the truth is he has not tapped anyone out since 2009. Alvarez is a relentless pursuer and his gas tank may be a bit larger than McGregor’s, although the Irishman did win a five-round war over Diaz in his last bout and refused to fade as he did in their first go-round.

 

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The UFC odds makers have installed the challenger McGregor as a -145 favorite which is more generous than I would have guessed. Alvarez is a game opponent but considers that in his brief tenure in the UFC he lost to Donald Cerrone by unanimous decision – no shame there – and defeated an aging Gilbert Melendez by split decision and then gained another split over a slightly diminished Anthony Pettis before starching Rafael dos Anjos for the title. I will take Conor McGregor over any of those 155-pound stalwarts and believe The Notorious’ unmatched punching power at 145 pounds will return even at 155. Alvarez has only been knocked out once in his career (TKO via Nick Thompson) back in ’07 but he has never faced the dual sledgehammers of Conor McGregor.

If Alvarez is smart, he will avoid a stand-and-trade with McGregor and get this fight to the floor. If he can maintain position, he can earn points on the judge’s scorecards with top control. But I don’t think this will happen as McGregor has an excellent takedown defense and will keep the fight standing, where Alvarez will more than likely oblige. I like the challenge in my UFC picks in this main event and you should too!

 

Free UFC Pick: Conor McGregor -145

 

Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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