UFC 205 Free Picks: McGregor vs. Alvarez

Eddie Alvarez posing for the cameras

Friday, October 28, 2016 8:01 PM GMT

Conor McGregor may be one of the Greatest Of All Time, but the MMA odds have moved at least somewhat toward Eddie Alvarez for their Lightweight title fight at UFC 205.

 

Record: 10-3 ML, 1-1 Totals, 10-3 Props (+11.29 units)

Finally, Conor McGregor will be back where he belongs: in the Octagon, fighting for the title. Except it's not his title. The UFC Featherweight champion is going to challenge Eddie Alvarez for the Lightweight strap on Saturday, November 12 in the main event of UFC 205, the promotion's long-awaited debut at Madison Square Garden. And McGregor's the favorite, too, checking in at –150 on our UFC odds board as we go to press.

But is McGregor the sharp choice for our UFC picks? Maybe not; the Irish whirlwind opened at –185 when this matchup was first floated in late August, but shortly after the fight was made official one month later, McGregor (20-3 lifetime, 8-1 UFC) was available at –135. His odds have slowly improved since then, but early money is sharp money, right?


15 Pounds

Sometimes. We're a bit leery in this particular case since the earliest lines were about a prospective McGregor-Alvarez bout. Having said that, there was a burst of action on Alvarez (28-4 lifetime, 3-1 UFC) right after the fight was announced. There's plenty of logic in picking the underdog here, just as there was when McGregor faced Nate Diaz: Heavier opponent, contrarian betting, all that good stuff.

Except McGregor won't be the smaller man in the Octagon. He's 5-foot-9, the same height as Alvarez, with a five-inch reach advantage. McGregor is also coming down in weight after fighting Diaz at 170 pounds. The extra baggage didn't do his stamina any favors against Diaz, but that should be much less of an issue at 155 pounds.

So let's approach this fight from a different direction and hit the props market. Given the unknowns in this matchup, who's to say where the value is on the moneyline? On the other hand, we can get at least some value with everyone's least favorite outcome: the draw. It's definitely worth a shot at +6500 at the different sportsbooks. McGregor just got through a majority decision over Diaz, and Alvarez has fought three of his last five opponents to a split decision. Draws usually happen a little under one percent of the time in the UFC, but that's all fights – let's see what these two gentlemen can do what the odds say is a close contest.

 

Free UFC Pick: Draw (+6500)

Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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