UFC 204 Predictions & Free Picks - Does Dan Henderson Have Anything Left?

Friday, October 7, 2016 4:08 PM UTC

Friday, Oct. 7, 2016 4:08 PM UTC

Dan Henderson, at age 46, is about to challenge Michael Bisping for the UFC Middleweight title. The MMA odds are squarely on the side of the champion. But should they be?

<p> </p><p><strong>Record:</strong> 9-3 ML, 1-1 Totals, 9-3 Props (+9.29 units)</p><p>There hasn't been a lot of hype for Saturday's UFC 204 event in Manchester, England. But the top three bouts feature enough talent to keep discriminating fight fans happy. Plus, they're holding off the main card until 3:00 a.m. local time, so the PPV will be on at the usual 10:00 p.m. Eastern start time. Cabbage crates coming over the briny!</p><p> </p><p>Here's how that main card looks at press time, <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/ufc/" title="Live UFC Odds">UFC odds</a> included but don't forget the list of <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/best-sportsbooks/" target="_blank" title="SBR's Official Best Online Sportsbooks List">best sportsbooks</a> first:</p><p><strong>Middleweight Title:</strong> Michael Bisping vs. Dan Henderson +205 <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=4556&amp;book=5dimes" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Join 5Dimes">at 5Dimes</a><br /><strong>Middleweight:</strong> Vitor Belfort vs. Gegard Mousasi  -330 <a href="http://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=4561&amp;book=BetOnline" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Play &amp; Win At BetOnline">at BetOnline</a><br /><strong>Light Heavyweight:</strong> Ovince Saint Preux vs. Jimi Manuwa +140 <a href="http://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=4567&amp;book=Heritage" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Top Notch Betting Site">at Heritage</a><br /><strong>Heavyweight:</strong> Stefan Struve vs. Daniel Omielanczuk +155 <a href="http://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=4573&amp;book=Pinnacle" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Click &amp; Join Pinnacle Today!">at Pinnacle</a><br /><strong>Featherweight:</strong> Mirsad Bektic vs. Russell Doane +550 <a href="http://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=4571&amp;book=JustBet" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Go To JustBet &amp; Open Your Account Today!">at JustBet</a></p><p> </p><p>The main event is of particular interest because Henderson (32-14 lifetime, 9-8 UFC) is getting his first UFC title shot at age 46. He won the Middleweight Tournament at UFC 17, back in 1998, and he won titles in PRIDE and Strikeforce, but Henderson has yet to take home one of those shiny gold UFC belts.</p><p>His chances don't look very good. Henderson did knock out Bisping (29-7 lifetime, 18-7 UFC) seven years ago at UFC 100, cashing in as a –250 favorite, but things have changed since then. He's 4-6 in his most recent run in the Octagon, including losses to both men in the co-main event. Bisping is on a four-fight winning streak, taking the Middleweight strap off Luke Rockhold (-480) in June. He also fights out of Manchester, so the crowd will be very much on his side Saturday night/Sunday morning.</p><p> </p><p>We're recommending Bisping for your <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/more-sports/" title="More Free UFC Picks At SBR">UFC picks</a> this week, but we also want to direct your attention to the props market. Heavyweights are often good bets not to go the distance, and Struve (27-8 lifetime, 11-6 UFC) has gone to the judges' scorecards just twice in his last 13 fights. He's also got a vulnerable opponent in Omielanczuk (19-5-1, 1 NC lifetime, 4-2 UFC), who was announced on September 14 as a replacement for Ruslan Magomedov. The price on Struve winning is about the same as the price for the fight ending within 15 minutes, so we'll take the latter option, and may the Octagon be with you.</p><p> </p><p><strong>Free UFC Pick:</strong> Bisping -210<br /><strong>Best Line Offered: </strong><a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=4564&amp;book=Bookmaker" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Best Line Offered With Bookmaker">at Bookmaker</a></p><p>[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3081263, "sportsbooksIds":[93,1096,83,180,43], "LineTypeId":2, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]</p><p> </p><p><strong>Free UFC Pick:</strong> Struve-Omielanczuk doesn't go to decision (-185)<br /><strong>Best Line Offered:</strong> <a href="http://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=4556&amp;book=5dimes" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Join 5Dimes">at 5Dimes</a></p><p>[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3094935, "sportsbooksIds":[19,1096,83,180,43], "LineTypeId":2, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]</p>
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