UFC 204 Predictions & Free Picks - Does Dan Henderson Have Anything Left?

Dan Henderson and Michael Bisping at press conference

Friday, October 7, 2016 4:08 PM GMT

Dan Henderson, at age 46, is about to challenge Michael Bisping for the UFC Middleweight title. The MMA odds are squarely on the side of the champion. But should they be?

 

Record: 9-3 ML, 1-1 Totals, 9-3 Props (+9.29 units)

There hasn't been a lot of hype for Saturday's UFC 204 event in Manchester, England. But the top three bouts feature enough talent to keep discriminating fight fans happy. Plus, they're holding off the main card until 3:00 a.m. local time, so the PPV will be on at the usual 10:00 p.m. Eastern start time. Cabbage crates coming over the briny!

 

Here's how that main card looks at press time, UFC odds included but don't forget the list of best sportsbooks first:

Middleweight Title: Michael Bisping vs. Dan Henderson +205 at 5Dimes
Middleweight: Vitor Belfort vs. Gegard Mousasi  -330 at BetOnline
Light Heavyweight: Ovince Saint Preux vs. Jimi Manuwa +140 at Heritage
Heavyweight: Stefan Struve vs. Daniel Omielanczuk +155 at Pinnacle
Featherweight: Mirsad Bektic vs. Russell Doane +550 at JustBet

 

The main event is of particular interest because Henderson (32-14 lifetime, 9-8 UFC) is getting his first UFC title shot at age 46. He won the Middleweight Tournament at UFC 17, back in 1998, and he won titles in PRIDE and Strikeforce, but Henderson has yet to take home one of those shiny gold UFC belts.

His chances don't look very good. Henderson did knock out Bisping (29-7 lifetime, 18-7 UFC) seven years ago at UFC 100, cashing in as a –250 favorite, but things have changed since then. He's 4-6 in his most recent run in the Octagon, including losses to both men in the co-main event. Bisping is on a four-fight winning streak, taking the Middleweight strap off Luke Rockhold (-480) in June. He also fights out of Manchester, so the crowd will be very much on his side Saturday night/Sunday morning.

 

We're recommending Bisping for your UFC picks this week, but we also want to direct your attention to the props market. Heavyweights are often good bets not to go the distance, and Struve (27-8 lifetime, 11-6 UFC) has gone to the judges' scorecards just twice in his last 13 fights. He's also got a vulnerable opponent in Omielanczuk (19-5-1, 1 NC lifetime, 4-2 UFC), who was announced on September 14 as a replacement for Ruslan Magomedov. The price on Struve winning is about the same as the price for the fight ending within 15 minutes, so we'll take the latter option, and may the Octagon be with you.

 

Free UFC Pick: Bisping -210
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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Free UFC Pick: Struve-Omielanczuk doesn't go to decision (-185)
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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