UFC 202 Betting Main Card Fights That Won't Go To Distance

UFC 202

Jason Lake

Sunday, August 14, 2016 6:34 PM UTC

Sunday, Aug. 14, 2016 6:34 PM UTC

We're less than two weeks away from UFC 202, but the betting odds are already available for the top three fights on the card – including Nate Diaz vs. Conor McGregor.

Keep your fingers crossed, fight fans. The big UFC 202 card on August 20 in Las Vegas has seen a lot of changes over the past few weeks, but as we go to press, the main event is still intact: Conor McGregor will try to get his shine back from Nate Diaz. The “co-main” looks solid, too, as Anthony “Rumble” Johnson will take on Glover Teixeira. Plus, Donald Cerrone returns to the Octagon against Rick Story. All three fights are up on the UFC odds board.

But do we want any of them in our UFC picks? That's a tough call. At first blush, the preliminary card looks like it has some betting value, with two fights involving women and two more from the lighter divisions – Bantamweight and Featherweight in this case. Too bad they don't have any odds posted yet. Let's see if we can figure out the three matches on the table right now.


Welterweight: Nate Diaz vs. Conor McGregor
McGregor (19-3 lifetime, 7-1 UFC) lost their first fight, but Diaz (19-10 lifetime, 14-8 UFC) is a +110 dog for the rematch, and there's more McGregor money on the way. There's a case to be made for Diaz as a value pick. And yet... McGregor does have that “special sauce.” How about we eat some chalk and say this fight won't go to a decision? Seems prudent. Either McGregor gets back on the KO track with a full training camp to prepare, or Diaz is simply too big a challenge at 170 pounds.

Free UFC Pick: Fight doesn't go to decision (–333)
Best Line Offered: at William Hill

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Light Heavyweight: Anthony Johnson vs. Glover Teixeira
Here's another one that'll probably end with someone crumpled up on the canvas. Johnson (21-5 lifetime, 13-5 UFC) is a devastating knockout artist, earning 15 of his 21 wins by KO/TKO. Teixeira (25-4 lifetime, 8-2 UFC) also has 15 knockouts to his name. One of these guys is going to knock the other one out. Maybe Johnson gets it done as the –225 favorite, or maybe he runs out of gas and Teixeira puts him away. Either either.

Free UFC Pick: Fight doesn't go to decision (–270)
Best Line Offered: at Sportbet

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Welterweight: Rick Story vs. Donald Cerrone
Cerrone (30-7, 1 NC lifetime, 17-4 UFC) has two performance bonuses in two matches since moving up from Lightweight. Story (19-8 lifetime, 12-6 UFC) could be in over his head as a +150 dog, but he was +250 when he beat Gunnar Nelson by split decision two years ago in Stockholm – on a broken ankle, no less. Story only has four knockout wins on his CV, and Cerrone has only lost twice by KO or TKO, so let's go for the Triple Chalkburger.

Free UFC Pick: Any other result than Story wins by KO/TKO (–1380)
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes
Record: 7-0 ML, 1-1 Totals, 7-2 Props (+12.05 units)

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