UFC 198 Picks: Stipe Miocic vs. Fabricio Werdum On May 14

Swinging Johnson

Monday, May 9, 2016 5:27 PM UTC

Monday, May. 9, 2016 5:27 PM UTC

On May 14th Stipe Miocic will attempt to wrestle the UFC Heavyweight title from champion Fabricio Werdum. Let’s review UFC odds and get on the right side of this main event.

Stipe Miocic (14-2, 10 KO’s, 1 Sub)
The former Golden Gloves fighter and NCAA Division 1 wrestler has reeled off five wins in his last six matches with the lone blemish coming at the hands of Junior dos Santos via unanimous decision back in December of 2014. Miocic has had two fights since that disappointing defeat, stopping Mark Hunt in the fifth round of their bout in May of last year and most recently rocked the aging, and fading, Andre Arlovski by TKO in just 54 seconds.

That stunning display of power in January earned the Cleveland native a Performance of the Night bonus and a title shot once Cain Velasquez pulled out of his scheduled rematch with Werdum in February. Miocic was ready, willing and able to battle Werdum in Velasquez’s stead, just a month removed from his victory over Arlovski, but Werdum pulled out the day after Miocic was announced as the replacement. Now Miocic has had an extra three months to prepare and will be seeking his sixth bonus in his 11th fight under the UFC banner.


Fabricio Werdum (20-5, 6 KO’s, 10 Subs)
Not many fans and pundits gave the then 37-year-old Fabricio Werdum much of a shot at upsetting Cain Velasquez at UFC 188 but those who dared to dream and grabbed the UFC odds of +400 were rewarded in their UFC picks that night in July of 2015. It was Werdum’s sixth consecutive win since his 2011 unanimous decision loss, and last fight in the now defunct Strikeforce organization, to Alistair Overeem.

Much had been made of the thin air of Mexico City and the role it played in the title tilt between Werdum and Velasquez in June of last year. While Velasquez’s camp minimized its importance and didn’t arrive at the site of UFC 188 until a week or two before the scheduled championship bout, Werdum’s trainers thought it best to get their fighter and his cardio acclimated which is why he spent most of his training camp there. That strategy paid off in spades as Velasquez, renowned for his conditioning, looked faded from the opening bell. Werdum, much to his credit, took full advantage and locked in a guillotine choke in the third round which ended the fight and Velasquez’s second reign as the UFC heavyweight king.


Betting Analysis
The only thing going against Fabricio Werdum at this stage of the game is his age. Werdum has faced a Who’s Who of legendary MMA fighters dating all the way back to his days in PRIDE and then in Strikeforce where he notched wins over the likes of Gabriel Gonzaga (twice), Alistair Overeem, Antonio “Big Foot” Silva and Fedor Emelianeko. His record since signing with the UFC has been unblemished with victories over Roy Nelson (UD), Mike Russow (TKO), Antonio “Big Nog” Nogueira (Submission), Travis Browne (UD), Mark Hunt (TKO) and of course Cain Velasquez (Submission).

Yet, on the other hand it is hard to ignore Stipe Miocic’s accomplishments. Since his entrance into the big leagues of MMA he has garnered 10 wins in 12 matches with victories over the likes of Roy Nelson (UD), Mark Hunt (TKO) and Andrei Arlovski (TKO) to name but a few. But do you notice the common denominator between those “name” opponents? If you said “old” then you get where I am going. Roy Nelson is closing in on 40-years-old while Mark Hunt is 42 and Andrei Arlovski is 37 going on 53. Werdum is no spring chicken himself but he appears to be fighting at an elite level at the age of 38. Vai Cavalo has been through the wars with some of the best fighters ever when in their primes. He also has a flawless martial arts pedigree as a black belt in judo, Muay Thai and a 2nd degree black belt in BJJ.

I believe Werdum will take this fight to the mat and that is where Miocic will get into real trouble. Miocic’s advantage is his three inch reach over Werdum and his staggering power. But Werdum owns the mat and despite Miocic’s wrestling pedigree he has only a single submission on his record while Werdum has 10 submission finishes to his credit. I am not sure how long Werdum will hold the title as he advances towards his 40’s but for at least one more fight the UFC Heavyweight crown will belong to him.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3006512, "sportsbooksIds":[93,1096,169,999996,180,139], "LineTypeId":2, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]
Free UFC Pick:  Werdum -151
Best Line Offered:  at Pinnacle


All Available UFC PPV Prop Bets
Sportsbook Review has collected all the prop bets available at top rated UFC betting sites. Go ahead and take a look at all the different opportunities available to profit from!

comment here