UFC 198 Picks: Brazil Hosts Drop-Dead Proposition Bets

Friday, May 13, 2016 5:49 PM GMT

Saturday night the UFC touches down in Brazil w/ the featured match being Fabricio Werdum & Stipe Miocic. Let’s look at the props on this and a few other bouts in order to cash in our UFC picks.

Werdum vs. Miocic
Fabricio Werdum winning via stoppage (including DQ) +115
Fabricio Werdum winning via decision +400
Stipe Miocic winning via stoppage (including DQ) +260
Stipe Miocic winning via decision +400
Draw +6600

The challenger in this fight has age on his side as the champion is closing in on 39-years-old while Miocic is hitting his stride at 33. However, Miocic has faced a bevy of fading stars with recent wins over Andrei Arlovski (37), Mark Hunt (42), Gabriel Gonzaga (36 going on 56) and Roy Nelson (39). The difference here is Werdum is far from fading despite his advanced age. Werdum owns a huge advantage on the mat but Miocic has never been submitted. I see this one going the distance and will gladly take the big payoff in my UFC picks with Werdum getting his hand raised via the judges’ scorecards.

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Free UFC Pick: Fabricio Werdum winning by decision +400
Best Line Offered: at Bet365

 

Jacare Souza vs. Vitor Belfort
Jacare Souza winning via stoppage (including DQ) -200
Jacare winning via decision +550
Vitor Belfort winning via stoppage (including DQ) +333
Vitor Belfort winning via decision +1000
Draw +6600

How much better would this fight be if Belfort was in his prime versus the 39-year-old version we have today? Belfort is still a dangerous fighter and world class striker but Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza is a monster at 185. Though Souza is 36-years-old he is fighting better than ever before but knows his window of opportunity is closing with each passing year. Belfort is not equipped to deal with Jacare on the mat – and very few people are - as Souza has earned 16 of his 22 wins via submission. Yes, Souza did lose by split decision to Yael Romero in his last bout but I say he gets back on track with a submission over the ever dangerous striker Vitor Belfort.

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Free UFC Pick: Jacare Souza winning via stoppage (including DQ) -200
Best Line Offered: at Bet365

 

Cris ‘Cyborg’ vs. Leslie Smith
Cyborg winning via stoppage (including DQ) -1200
Cyborg winning via decision +1200
Leslie Smith winning via stoppage (including DQ) +1100
Leslie Smith winning via decision +1600
Draw +6600

We have witnessed sure-fire, can’t miss favorites getting starched recently with Ronda Rousey’s stunning loss to Holly Holm so yes, anything can happen. The problem is that it happens so infrequently that betting longshots like Leslie Smith can be costly until one finally hits paydirt. But unlike the previously undefeated Holly Holm, who was a world boxing champion many times over, Leslie Smith has an 8-6 mark in MMA and only four KO’s to her credit. While I’m not fond of ever laying a prohibitive price like the one the UFC odds makers are demanding on Cyborg winning via stoppage, it’s ridiculous to consider any other outcome.

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Free UFC Pick: Cyborg winning via stoppage (including DQ) -1200 
Best Line Offered: at Bet365

 

Shogun Rua vs. Corey Anderson
Shogun winning via stoppage (including DQ) +300
Shogun winning via decision +600
Corey Anderson winning via stoppage (including DQ) +333
Corey Anderson winning via decision -105
Draw +6600

Shogun has been fighting in MMA since 2002 and under the UFC banner for almost nine years. He has been through the wars and it appears those battles are catching up to him. Though he won his last fight over 39-year-old Antonio Nogueira, aka Lil Nog, by unanimous decision I don’t see the results of this showdown against the young up-and-comer Corey Anderson being as friendly a result.

Shogun was KO’ed in his two previous bouts by Dan Henderson and Ovince Saint Preux and is now pitted against 26-year-old Corey Anderson. The native of Rockford, Illinois will be facing an uphill battle fighting Shogun in his native Brazil which is why he will try to finish Rua and not chance getting the short end of a hometown decision. Anderson has three KO’s to his credit and will get No. 4 here.

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Free UFC Pick: Corey Anderson winning via stoppage (including DQ) +333
Best Line Offered: at Bet365

 

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