UFC 196 is finally upon us and the wagering choices are not limited to merely which fighter will win and how long the match will last. Here we examine the UFC odds.
Diaz vs. McGregor
Fighters Touch Gloves Before the Match
Conor McGregor, for all his brash and bluster, is a touch-gloves kind of guy. Now that doesn’t mean he displays the universal symbol of good sportsmanship in all his bouts – recalling his dismissal of Denis Siver – but it is a fair statement that if his opponent Nate Diaz extended his hands McGregor would more than likely accept. Ah, but there’s the fly in the ointment. Nate Diaz is not a good sport and his Stockton swag prohibits him from being the better man. Even if McGregor were to offer first, which we doubt, Diaz would more than likely sneer and retreat back to his corner in anticipation of the opening bell. The UFC odds make betting No on this one virtually prohibitive but count me out as one of those who will bet Yes as a “value bet”. If you want to get a head start on this one before a single blow is landed, include No -505 in your UFC picks.
UFC Prop Pick: No -505
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker
Diaz Wins by Submission
Nate Diaz has won by submission in 11 of his 18 MMA victories. He is trained by one of the most revered BJJ practitioners in the business, Cesar Gracie, and can be lethal once the fight hits the mat. The inherent problem for Nate Diaz is that he has no wrestling chops to speak of and thus prefers to stand and trade rather than lay and pray. Many believe that will be his undoing against McGregor as he has yet to feel the full impact of the Irishman’s devastating arsenal. However, if the going gets tough for Diaz he may opt to strategize and allow McGregor to take him to the mat where he will suddenly morph from the hunted to the hunter. Though I believe McGregor will win this fight I can’t help but be tempted by the enormous number the books are hanging on this prop. This to me is a real value bet and one that will have me grabbing all that juice in the event Diaz decides to play python to McGregor in his role as mouse.
UFC Prop Pick: Yes +800
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline
Tate vs. Holm
Tate Wins Inside the Distance
No – 795
You better believe Miesha Tate has watched Holly Holm’s stunning victory over Ronda Rousey more times than she’s changed her socks since being tapped as Holm’s first title challenger. Stylistically she understands that if the heavy-handed Rousey had decided to play it straight and not attempt to beat the highly decorated boxing champ at her own game then Holm would most likely not be her opponent at UFC 196.
That being said Miesha Tate is one of the most dangerous women on the mat. She’s not the preternatural force that is Ronda Rousey but she’s a click below and even that makes her a formidable opponent when the fight falls to the floor. Tate will be shooting for the takedown from jump street but the question is will she be able to get Holm down, who demonstrated a vastly improved takedown defense against Rousey. Of course, that takedown defense was made to look all the more impressive due to the fact that Rousey was pretty much out on her feet by the time the former champ decided to get back to her roots and get to the ground.
I see Miesha Tate as having an excellent chance at getting a takedown of Holly Holm as she will refuse to engage standing up. Tate couldn’t box with Rousey and thus won’t even be the least bit tempted to do so against the best female striker in the business. Once the fight hits the mat, anything is possible.
UFC Prop Pick: Yes +499
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes