UFC 194 Picks: Top Betting Props for McGregor vs. Aldo

Jason Lake

Thursday, December 10, 2015 12:22 AM UTC

Thursday, Dec. 10, 2015 12:22 AM UTC

The UFC odds say Saturday's big title fight between Conor McGregor and Jose Aldo won't go the distance. That would be typical for McGregor, but quite rare for Aldo.

Something's not right with this picture. The first time Jose Aldo was supposed to defend his Featherweight strap against Conor McGregor, it was going to be the biggest thing since sliced bread – the REAL Fight of the Century. Then Aldo suffered a rib injury in training and eventually pulled out of the fight. That was back in June; six months later, here we are waiting for Aldo and McGregor to headline this Saturday's UFC 194 card at the MGM Grand. Where's all the hype?

Maybe Holly Holm's to blame for this, too. Ever since Holm kicked Ronda Rousey in the head last month and took her Women's Bantamweight title, there's been a strange sense of caution around the UFC. McGregor is still the crowd favorite in this fight, and the betting favorite at –115 and above on our UFC odds board. But McGregor no longer seems invincible all of a sudden. Maybe Aldo will control this fight after all.


5 Rounds
If that's the case, there's tons of money to be made on the UFC props for Saturday's big fight. Right off the bat, there's the over/under on how many rounds this five-round match will require. The total at press time is 2.5 rounds, with the OVER favored slightly at –120. You can also make a simple prop bet on whether the fight will go the distance; NO is the big favorite at –260 and above.

We'll happily recommend YES (+240) for your UFC picks this week. The odds show deference to McGregor, a knockout artist who's gone the distance just once in his 20 professional fights – and that was a three-round match against Max Holloway in 2013. Aldo, on the other hand, has won four of his six UFC fights by unanimous decision. He was a lot more aggressive when he was first chasing down the title in the WEC; now that he has it, Aldo is using his superior defense and his counter-punching to protect his crown.

Must Read: Breaking Down & Analyzing Aldo vs. McGregor

I Predict These T'ings
If you are a McGregor fan – just about everyone is, including here at the home office – and you're looking for a prop bet that will add some value to Saturday's PPV experience, you can get him at up to +125 to win by KO, TKO or DQ. This would obviously be a higher payout that just taking McGregor to win, and it would play into his modus operandi of hitting hard and with volume.

Also, since McGregor himself has such a good track record of predicting his own fights, we should point out that he's already predicted he'll knock Aldo out this Saturday – and then go on to win the Lightweight title. We certainly wouldn't put it past him. Our hearts are with McGregor in this fight, but our wallets and purses are with Aldo.

UFC Picks: Take YES (+240) at bet365 on the fight going the distance

comment here