UFC 189 Betting: Will MacDonald vs. Lawler Rematch Be Different?

Swinging Johnson

Friday, July 10, 2015 12:34 AM GMT

You would never know it but there is another championship belt at stake on July 11th as Robbie Lawler defends his UFC Welterweight title against young gun Rory MacDonald. Let's discuss which fighter has the best chance of cashing in our UFC picks.

Rory MacDonald (18-2, 7 KO's, 6 Subs)
Twenty-five year-old Rory MacDonald has lost only two fights in his career and one of them just happened to be against the man he will oppose at UFC 189. Since MacDonald dropped that agonizing split decision to Robbie Lawler at UFC 167 the Tristar Gym product has gotten back on the winning track with unanimous decision victories over veteran mat master Demian Maia and top contender Tyron Woodley then finishing Tarec Saffiedine by TKO in his last fight in October. It was the first time Saffiedine had ever been stopped.

MacDonald is a tactical strategist who times every shot and contemplates every move. His meticulous attention to detail can, at times, cause him to be unduly cautious when he should be locking and loading. In his last seven fights he has only finished one opponent (Saffiedine) which buttresses the argument that he may be too preoccupied with making a mistake. Nevertheless, he is a force to be reckoned with when he unleashes his machine gun strikes yet is not a bona fide bomb dropper like Lawler. His finishing tactics are more akin to death by a thousand cuts rather than boom goes the dynamite.

While MacDonald is dangerous standing up his takedowns are seamless and his ability to control his opponent when the fight hits the floor is stellar. Whether MacDonald is on his feet or on the mat he is a master at cage control and normally dictates the pace and tempo of any fight in which he is engaged. He is also more than capable of exploiting a loose limb or open neck when it avails itself as evidenced by his six wins via submission yet has yet to finish an opponent in this manner in over five years.

 

Robbie Lawler (25-10, 19 KO's, 1 Sub)
Robbie Lawler is a flat out wrecking ball. He reminds me of former heavyweight contender Shane Carwin in his prime. He is just a rough, tough bad ass that possesses world class skill as opposed to most rough, tough bad asses who swing for the fences and don't have much of a game plan if they miss. Lawler is ridiculously powerful for his weight class and can take a punch as well as anyone. Only Nick Diaz has been able to KO Lawler and that was over 10 years ago at UFC 47.

Robbie Lawler is not the typical champion. He has 10 losses on his record and has been submitted on five occasions. He is not a highly decorated wrestler, amateur boxing champion or BJJ savant. You will not see black belts from four or five different disciplines hanging from a display rack in his trophy room nor will he remind anyone of Carlos Condit when he unleashes a roundhouse. He is a brawler through and through but to diminish his talents would be wrong on many levels. He is not the prettiest fighter but he gets the job done and his road to the top has not been easy.

Ever since he TKO'ed Josh Koscheck, albeit not the Josh Koscheck of his glory days, at UFC 157 in February of 2013 Lawler has been a more disciplined and lethal fighter. The reigning welterweight king followed that up with a TKO over Bobby Voelker, split decision over Rory MacDonald, a hard fought decision loss for the title to Johny Hendricks, a TKO victory over Jake Ellenberger, unanimous decision over veteran tough guy Matt Brown and finally captured the crown in a rematch with Hendricks at UFC 181.

Here you can find All UFC 189 Prop Betting Options for McGregor vs. Mendes

UFC Odds & Picks
When the bookmakers hung the opening UFC odds on this fight it was in fact the challenger Rory MacDonald who was tagged as a substantial -190 favorite. Since then the money has moved that line downwards as the betting public and/or the sharps found value with the champion. If you are searching for a line, the best UFC odds on MacDonald can be found at Pinnacle, who is hanging MacDonald at -165. If you are favoring the champ to retain his title then might I suggest you get on over to WagerWeb, where you can wager on Lawler at +155.

While I admire the tenacity of Robbie Lawler I know that true grit and devastating hands can win often enough but to stay at the top you need to be a complete martial artist and highly pedigreed. Rory MacDonald was outfoxed and out-gamed by Lawler in their last fight. He won't be anywhere as green as he was then and on July 11th the belt will change hands.

UFC Picks: Rory MacDonald -165 at Pinnacle will be part of my UFC picks.

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