UFC 188 Picks: Top Betting Props for Gastelum vs. Marquardt

Swinging Johnson

Thursday, June 11, 2015 10:39 PM UTC

Thursday, Jun. 11, 2015 10:39 PM UTC

Will this clash between young gun Kelvin Gastelum and veteran cage warrior Nate Marquardt signal a changing of the guard? Here we analyze several UFC prop bets in this middleweight clash in order to help us cash in our UFC picks.

Kelvin Gastelum (10-1, 3 KO’s, 4 Subs) vs. Nate Marquardt (33-14, 9 KO’s, 16 Subs)
Kelvin Gastelum, the dark-horse winner of TUF 17, is making the move back up to middleweight after failing to make the 170 pound limit on two occasions in his UFC tenure. Gastelum fought as a middleweight in The Ultimate Fighter 17 and was 4-0 culminating in a split decision victory over the always dangerous Uriah Hall. At 5’9” Gastelum was hoping to remain at welterweight but his last bout, in which he lost his first professional fight to Tyron Woodley, demonstrated the adverse effects of trying to shed the weight while maintaining his power. Now Gastelum will be contending against stronger fighters who will enjoy a height and reach advantage over the multi-dimensional wrestler with knockout power.

Nate Marquardt has been a veteran of the cage wars since he turned pro way back in 1999. Now 36-years-old Marquardt is feeling the effects of more than 15 years of honing his craft in a punishing trade. Marquardt has dropped four of his last five and has suffered two of his three lifetime defeats by knockout in 2013 alone. The last time he got starched before ’13 was back in ’07 to the incomparable Anderson Silva in a UFC middleweight title match.

Now that you know the backdrop to this UFC 188 clash let us scan the UFC odds and associated prop bets to score some winners in our UFC picks.

Compare all UFC 188 Prop Betting Odds on Offer

Total Rounds – 1 ½ (O -190, U +165 at 5Dimes)
Young Kelvin Gastelum has never been finished and as previously stated lost his first match of his professional career by split decision to Tyron Woodley in January of this year. But immediately preceding that loss was a first-round submission over veteran welterweight gatekeeper Jake Ellenberger. Interestingly enough it was indeed Ellenberger who knocked out Marquardt in the opening round of their battle at UFC 158 in November of 2013.

Yet before we continue to make the case that A beat B who beat C therefore logically assuming A will beat C, let us not forget that Nate Marquardt scored a first-round KO over Tyron Woodley in a welterweight Strikeforce title match back in 2012 who is the same Tyron Woodley that handed Gastelum his first loss less than five months ago. That being said a few years can age a fighter plenty and Marquardt’s title tilt with Woodley may have been the very best of what he had left in the tank.

I look for Gastelum to come out swinging for the fences having been able to focus exclusively on training and not worrying about cutting weight. Yet swing for the fences or not Gastelum has yet to knockout an opponent at this level and Marquardt, though far from his former self, is no slouch. This is a battle of two mat tacticians with Gastelum relying on a wrestling base while Marquardt has KO’ed only two opponents over the last five years. I don’t believe either fighter will succumb to a submission as both are acutely aware of what they need to do on the mat and in addition to Gastelum having never been submitted, Marquardt has not been submitted since ’03.

UFC Pick: Over 1 ½ rounds (-190) with 5Dimes offering the best betting odds on this prop thus far.

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Fight Goes 3 Round Distance (No -145, Yes +105)
If the fight gets to the halfway point as we suspect it will I don’t believe it would be a stretch to assume that this one ultimately goes to the judge’s scorecards. Gastelum is talented enough to hang with a crafty veteran like Marquardt and possesses enough grappling chops to match him when the fight hits the floor. This one looks poised to go the distance.

UFC Pick: Yes +105 to go the distance at 5Dimes.


Gastelum Wins by Decision (No -180, Yes +140)
As stated I don’t see either fighter finishing the other. However I do see Gastelum getting the better of Marquardt in a match that marks the ascension of a young fighter sun-setting the career of an older, venerable warrior. Don’t overthink this one boys. It will play out just like this.

UFC Pick: Yes +140 Gastelum wins by decision.

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