UFC 175 Odds Update: Changes in Value?

Jason Lake

Thursday, July 3, 2014 11:09 AM UTC

Thursday, Jul. 3, 2014 11:09 AM UTC

Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida is still the underdog for Saturday’s Middleweight title bout in Las Vegas against champion Chris Weidman. But the MMA odds are edging ever so slowly toward the contender.

UFC fans have been waiting a while for this one. Chris Weidman was supposed to defend his Middleweight championship back in May against Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida, but Weidman had both his knees scoped, and the fight had to be delayed. The wait is almost over; they’ll touch gloves this Saturday at Mandalay Bay, and at least on paper, this looks like one of the better fights we’ll see all year.

You might not think so just from looking at the MMA betting lines. When we last checked in on our two combatants, Machida was the underdog at anywhere between +165 and +200, although the odds were starting to creep toward the lower end of that spectrum. Now as we get closer to bell time, the UFC lines have tightened up even more: Machida is priced between +130 and +170, while Wideman has shed some chalk at between –169 and –222.

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Ariel vs. Lotus
This still looks like a good spot to bet on Machida. This might just be his third fight since moving down to 185 pounds, but the former Light Heavyweight champion could easily have made the move sooner – Machida was one of the smaller fighters at 205 pounds, as well as one of the quickest. As a Middleweight, Machida looks very much like he belongs, knocking out Mark Munoz (+265) and picking apart Gegard Mousasi (+200) in a strong unanimous decision.

As for Weidman, it’s been a year since he first took the strap off Anderson Silva at UFC 162, and we still don’t know quite what to make of him. The return bout against “The Spider” ended somewhat prematurely when Silva broke his leg, and thanks to injuries and delays, Weidman has yet to fight anyone else since becoming champion. Weidman will also be representing the United States in this U.S. vs. Brazil-themed pay-per-view, which might encourage patriotic bettors to open up their wallets a bit more than they should.

Cautiously Optimistic
The term “co-main event” is an oxymoron, of course, but that’s pretty much the case for Saturday’s Women's Bantamweight title fight between champion Ronda Rousey and challenger Alexis Davis. On an individual level, Rousey might be the biggest star the UFC has today. But her level of opposition has been poor thus far, and at Mandalay Bay, Rousey is carrying chalk of anywhere between –891 and –1400 into the Octagon.

Believe it or not, those UFC lines used to be even more inflated. After opening at –735, Rousey was available as high as –1750, higher than any fighter in company history. But the UFC is trying very hard to push the idea that Davis is the toughest competition Rousey has faced thus far. She’s 4-0 in the Octagon with a unanimous decision over Liz Carmouche, whom Rousey beat at UFC 157 when the Women’s Bantamweight division made its debut.

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I’ll Be in My Trailer
At this point, Rousey’s toughest competition might be herself. She’s admittedly worn out at this point, having filmed three movies over the past seven months – watch for her in The Expendables 3 later this summer. It’s usually bad news when a fighter gets torn away from the gym for too long, so making Davis one of your betting picks is perfectly within reason at these prices.

Speaking of chalk, watch out as well for Urijah Faber, who has moved from –1000 at the open to as high as –1200 for his Bantamweight matchup with former TUF 12 competitor Alex Caceres, who is 4-0 with one no-contest in his last five fights in the Octagon. You can see that fight on Fox Sports 1 before the main card gets underway.

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