UEFA Champions League Semifinals Leg 2: Real Madrid vs. Juventus Free Soccer Picks

Kevin Stott

Monday, May 11, 2015 5:49 PM GMT

Juventus heads to Madrid with a 2-1 aggregate lead. Is this perceived desperation by Real Madrid reason enough to make a soccer pick on the Over 2½ here in Leg 2 at Santiago Bernabéu?

Odds Overview
Real Madrid vs. Juventus, Wednesday (May 13) 19:45 [20:45 CET, Local Time] (Fox Sports 1 USA, Fox Soccer 2Go, Fox Sports GO, ESPN Deportes (US); Sky Sports 1/HD UK, Sky Go Extra, Sky Sports 5/HD, Sky Go (UK); 2:45 p.m. ET/11:45 a.m. PT): Defending UEFA Champions League holders Real Madrid and Cristiano Ronaldo welcome Italian Serie A champions Juventus to Santiago Bernabéu on Wednesday for Leg 2 of their UEFA Champions League Semifinal series. Juventus won Leg 1 at home in Turin last Tuesday, 2-1, on goals from Álvaro Morata and Carlos Tévez, so hosts Real Madrid can at least take a little consolation in the reality it does have a potentially precious Road Goal heading into this second leg on its home soil.

Soccer odds makers here have made hosts Real Madrid -162 favorites over visitors Juventus who are huge underdogs here in Spain (+475, bet365) in the Three-Way (Winner) marketplace, with the Draw priced at +333. The Total (Goal)s in this game is 2½ with the Over -125 and the Under juiced at +100 (bet365) while the Both Teams To Score Prop odds in this second leg sees the ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ both set at -120 (bet365) while the odds To Qualify see Real Madrid at -150 and Juventus at +105 (William Hill), so this reveals linemakers think anyone could advance from this Semifinal series. A couple of other Props: Total Goals Exact: 1 +400, 2 +275, 3 +300, 4 +450, 5 +900, 6 +6000, 7 or More +2500 (bet365); and, Total Corners: 10½ Over -129, Under -105 (BetVictor). Don't forget to check our SBR's live Champions League odds board to shop for the best prices on the market.

 

Juventus FC
Juventus (24-8-3, 65 GF-20 GA) is looking to make its first UEFA Champions League final in the last decade, and with a 2-1 aggregate lead heading in here against the European Cup holders, a stellar goalkeeper (Gianluigi Buffon) and Defense, and its deepest roster in years, Bianconeri manager Massimiliano Allegri and the Old Lady are in a great position to represent Serie A and maybe even shock the world but this 90+ minutes (and maybe more) will be the biggest match of the season for Juventus, with another league title in Italy’s top flight of football already well in hand (80 points, 2nd-place AC Roma 64 points). This is where the rubber really meets the road for this club. Juventus (UEFA Champions League Form: LLWWDWWWDW) will look to Leg 1 scorers Tevez (+220 Anytime Goalscorer, bet365) and Morata (+333) for goals here at Santiago Bernabéu mid-week, as well as the talented Arturo Vidal (+400)—who was all over the pitch in the first leg in Turin—Fernando Llorente (+333), Paul Pogba (+450)—who is back after suffering a nasty hamstring injury—Claudio Marchisio (+800), AC Milan-loanee Alessandro Matri (+333) and legendary club captain Andrea Pirlo (+700). On the Injury front, Juventus has four players listed on the UEFA website as Injured and perceived as sidelined for this match: Kwadwo Asamoah (knee), Martín Cáceres (ankle), Luca Marrone (thigh) and Rômulo (groin).

 

Real Madrid CF
Real Madrid (28-2-6, 107 GF-34 GA in La Liga) probably won’t be catching Barcelona (80-76 points) in Spain’s La Liga (Primera División) , so the defending European champions in this prestigious Champions League tourney can afford to just let it all loose here, and actually do have to do just that, chasing a 2-1 deficit. With Iker Casillas being somewhat suspect in goal for Los Blancos, who knows if Real Madrid manager Carlo Ancelotti decides to go to Keylor Navas in such a crucial situation, but if this club is to become the first ever to win back-to-back UEFA Champions League trophies, then it will have to get a superb effort from whomever is in goal, and defenders like Sergio Ramos (+550 Anytime Goalscorer, bet365), Pepe (+1100), Marcelo (+900), Raphaël Varane (+900) and Fábio Coentrão (+2000). On Offense, although the team hasn’t been playing as well as it would like over the past couple of weeks in this crucial point of both the domestic and European seasons, Real Madrid has enough firepower to score 2, 3 or maybe even 4 goals here against Buffon and the defensive-minded Old Lady if everything goes right, with superstar Cristiano Ronaldo (-120), Karim Benzema (+150), Gareth Bale (+150), creative midfielder Isco (+400), James Rodríguez (+220), Jesé (+240), Javier Hernández (+150) and Toni Kroos (+700) all being able to put the ball in the back of the net. But with the pressure on, Los Blancos not playing that well and Juventus smelling the final in Berlin (June 6), this is a tough spot even for a team as talented as Real Madrid (UEFA Champions League Form: WWWWWWLDWL). On the Injury front, the UEFA website lists Los Blancos striker Benzema (knee) as Doubtful (expect him to play), with pivotal midfielder Luka Modric (knee), Alvaro Medrán (leg) and Brazilian teen Abner (knee) all listed as Injured and presumed out for this beyond important leg in the Spanish capital.

 

Best Betting Approaches and Series Trends
These two clubs met last year in this tournament in the Group Stage, with Real Madrid winning 2-1 here at Home and drawing 2-2 Away in Turin to Juventus. Lifetime, Real Madrid is 8-1-8 overall (17 GF-20 GA) in all competitions (all Champions League) against Juventus, and 5-0-2 here at Home (7 GF-5 GA) against the Old Lady in UEFA Champions League action, so the Italians have definitely hung with Real Madrid and certainly won’t be scared of the Spanish giants after the way Juve played in Leg 1. But this could be the most important game in this tournament this season, and should the hosts get 2 goals by halftime or a little thereafter and have a 2-0 lead (and lead 3-2 on aggregate), then maybe an all Spanish, Barcelona-Real Madrid Clash of Titans will be in the works for the final on the first Saturday in June. Forza.

For me, having the dynamic Pogba—who returned to Juve’s Starting XI against Cagliari in Serie A play on Saturday—back and healthy for visitors Juventus is huge, while the defending champs Real Madrid still missing the oft-unheralded Modric could loom large, and actually seems to be a big part of the reason why this massive club has struggled down the stretch. But luckily, they do have some young studs to plug in, although CR7 doesn’t look happy and maybe the pressure of trying to do so much has caught up with this team in mid-May. Having to playing city rivals Atlético de Madrid 143 times in a year will definitely do that to a team, not to mention the uber-rivalry with Barcelona and Soccer Magician Lionel Messi. Here, the addition of Pogba and the presence of Vidal should for Juventus be enough to ensure there isn’t a repeat titlist this year in the UEFA Champions League. And the pace should be nervous enough and fast enough for a couple of goals from each side, making the Over (2½ -125, bet365) and Both Teams To Score bets (‘Yes’ -120, bet365) a worth soccer pick to consider here for Wednesday evening at Santiago Bernabéu.

 
Predicted Final Score: Real Madrid 2 Juventus 2

UEFA Champions League Free Soccer Pick: Over 2½ -125, Both Team To Score ‘Yes’ -120 (bet365)

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