UEFA Champions League Quarter Finals Soccer Pick: Juventus vs. Monaco

Lee Phelps

Friday, March 27, 2015 2:25 PM GMT

The betting is out for the Champions League quarte-finals and William Hill's Lee Phelps is having a medium range look at Juve v Monaco. He has a free pick from the odds too.

On paper this quarter-final looks the easiest with one of the strongest home teams going up against the team fourth in Ligue Une in France. Juventus suddenly looked like a team who could go all the way when they dismantled Dortmund and then they got arguably the best draw in the last eight. They are widely available at 9.0 (8/1) to lift the trophy and do have that defensive mind-set you often need to do well in this competition.

 

Juventus
Let’s start with Carlos Tevez. This is his best Champions League season to date, with six goals. He is two behind Messi and Ronaldo and three behind Adriano, who is in the ‘clubhouse’. The Argentinian is priced on Soccer odds board at 26.0 (25/1) to be top scorer. You can back that each way and get a third of the odds if he is in the top two. Now I’m expecting Juve to get into the semi-finals, so from here that is four more games for him at least. At the same time, I can obviously see Messi and Ronaldo having that many as well and probably more, but at the price I think he is worth looking at.

The Italian champions-elect have lost two games in 31 at home in the Champions League and their record domestically is even more impressive. They are a very strong team with quality players throughout. My doubts about Serie A still stand, but I would place it above Ligue Une in terms of quality and obviously this is Italy's best versus the France's fourth best.

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Monaco
Despite their 3-1 win at Arsenal in the first leg of the Round of 16 games, Monaco have really struggled for goals and will need an away goal here to take back to France in my opinion.

The goal difference in this year’s competition shows seven scored and four conceded (with almost half of those in London).

They have only managed five wins in 19 away games in the top European competition and have failed to score in six of the last nine on their travels too. Nothing makes me think they can go to Juve and win or even score for that matter. I think their tactics will be to go for a nil nil, with the possibility of a goal on the break, but I don’t see them being too ambitious.

 

Soccer Pick
I don’t usually go for teams to win to nil, I worry too much about a fluke goal, but I’m sure the French will play deep and hope they can go into the second leg with the same score they start the first. As for my Soccer Pick I do see Juve breaking them down eventually though and I wouldn’t put you off backing that man Tevez to score a goal.

Free Soccer Pick: Juventus win to nil 2.05 (21/20) at Bet365

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