UEFA Champions League Predictions & Soccer Picks for Round 16

Lee Phelps

Thursday, March 5, 2015 4:52 PM GMT

Thursday, Mar. 5, 2015 4:52 PM GMT

The Champions League Round of 16 is finely poised in many of the ties, so Lee Phelps from William Hill's football podcast The Punt looks at the betting to find some value odds for his soccer picks.

The Champions League takes a week off before the nerves start jangling again as away goals become all important in some finely balanced last 16 ties. Let’s look at who the omens point to and who will be contesting the quarter-finals.

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Porto (1) vs. (1) Basel 
Porto grabbed that crucial away goal in Switzerland and usually go through when they have that advantage in the bag, in fact they have won all bar two of the nine ties in Europe when they have drawn the first leg away from home. The two defeats were to Bayern Munich and Manchester United.

It’s bad news for Basel too, they have a poor record in Portugal, drawing three, losing two and never having won. However a scoring draw isn’t the end of the world. 1-1 would take it extra time, 2-2 would see them through.

Soccer Pick: Porto win 2.2 (6/5)

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Real Madrid (2) vs. (0) Schalke
Real Madrid are trying to equal Manchester United’s record of 12 straight home Champions League wins when Schalke visit. They’re also unbeaten in 18 matches at the Santiago Bernabéu – winning 16 – dating back to April 2011.

Schalke have lost on all three visits to Madrid, including last season's 3-1 at the Bernabéu. They actually lost 6-2 on aggregate. They’re without a win in their last eight games in Spain (D4 L4) since a 3-0 victory at Espanyol in the 2005/06 UEFA Cup round of 32.

Soccer Pick:  Real Madrid HT Real Madrid FT 2.1 (11/10) at Bet365

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Monaco (3) vs. (1) Arsenal
Arsenal must do what no other club has managed in the Champions League era: win having gone into an away leg needing to score more than once to avoid elimination.

That embarrassing result at the Emirates was the third year running Arsenal had lost the home first leg in the round of 16 by a two-goal margin.

Only two teams have come back from a home first-leg loss and both were beaten 1-0 first time out: Ajax (v Panathinaikos FC, 1995/96 semi-finals, 3-0 second leg) and Inter Milan (v Bayern, 2010/11 round of 16, 3-2 away). As for our soccer pick for this fixture, take Arsenal on the winning market.

Soccer Pick: Arsenal win and both teams to score 5.5 (9/2)

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Atlético Madrid (0) vs. (1) Bayer Leverkusen
This first leg was the one that surprised me most, with the German side winning by a single goal. It was Leverkusen's first round of 16 success at the seventh attempt. All six of their previous games ended in defeat, with the goal difference 5-22.

Atlético will still be confident though, having won 20 of their last 22 European fixtures at the Vicente Calderón. The problem is their defence, which has been so strong in recent years. One goal for the Bundesliga team means the Spaniards would need to score three to progress.

Soccer Pick:  Atletico win and both teams to score 4.6 (18/5)

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Barcelona (2) vs. (1) Manchester City
Barca have a tremendous record when they have won the first leg, progressing 33 of 35 times, most recently against City last season.

Manchester City have shown signs of renovation in their performances during the season, beating Bayern Munich and Roma in successive games to qualify, great improvement on this teams soccer odds also and they'll need to find that form to have any chance, having seen Messi’s penalty saved.

Soccer Pick: Draw and both teams to score 6.0 (5/1)

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