UCL Soccer Picks for Bayern Munich vs. Shakhtar Donetsk: Take The Reds at -200

Nikki Adams

Tuesday, March 10, 2015 9:24 PM UTC

Tuesday, Mar. 10, 2015 9:24 PM UTC

Bayern Munich are the prohibitive favorites to advance into the quarterfinals at the expense of Shakhtar Donetsk. Few soccer bettors would argue on that score, so where are the value soccer picks to be had in the 2nd leg of this Champions League tie?

Bayern Munich Prohibitive Favorites
Although the first leg of the tie between Bayern Munich and Shakhtar Donetsk settled on an inconclusive scoreless draw, there's nothing inconclusive about the soccer odds when the pair collides on Wednesday.

Bayern Munich entered the tie as the runaway favorites and as they prepare for the reverse leg at Allianz Arena they remain so, matched at -550 to win outright and at -1000 to advance into the last eight. Indeed, their soccer odds are the most inflated of the lot of R16 ties trading this week in Champions League soccer odds.

Neither Bayern nor Shakhtar have the edge on the scoreboard. Bayern, in particular, missed the opportunity to clinch an away goal, which is something most strong favorites hanker after when starting a tie on the road, if only to take the pressure off in the return leg. Then again, they must be happy about not conceding either. Things got dicey when the Bundesliga outfit was reduced to ten men in the last quarter after Xabi Alonso received a red card for a second bookable offense. That they emerged unscathed was a small blessing in disguise.

As it is, Bayern are supremely confident. A side that can make the absence of an away goal a moot point by simply firing a bagful of goals into the net. Case and point: in the 2011-2012 Champions League Knockout Stage, Bayern Munich lost the first leg of their tie with Basel 1-0. In the reverse leg, they decimated Basel 7-0 at the Allianz Arena. And just like that the case for an upset was closed with a 7-1 win on aggregate.

Join the discussion in the SBR Forum on Champions League Picks.

Shakhtar Donetsk A Long Shot Pick
The Ukrainian side is the quintessential long shot of the competition. By virtue of drawing Bayern Munich in the R16 mainly, it was inevitable they'd crash out of the competition. That the tie is hanging in the balance of a scoreless draw hasn't changed the soccer betting outlook at all. Shakhtar Donetsk are the absurd+100000 long shots of the competition to win it all, the overwhelming +1800 underdogs to beat Bayern in the second leg and the +600 soccer pick to advance into the quarterfinals at the Bundesliga side's expense.

To say the odds are stacked against Shakhtar is putting it mildly. They are no hopers, according to the odds makers. And few soccer bettors would disagree with that score, obviously.


Soccer Betting Verdict:
To all intents and purposes, this tie is decided in the minds of soccer bettors. More likely than not, Bayern Munich will win the second leg. The only question is in what manner will they do so. Therein lies your value soccer picks.

This was the most lopsided Champions League tie when the draw came out, and it's obviously still the most lopsided going into the second leg. Neither side has an advantage on the scoreboard, but Bayern Munich has home advantage, which in their case is practically deciding. Banking on the home win at -500 doesn't offer much value for your soccer picks so we're best to dip into other exotic soccer betting markets. The top soccer picks we've put together here are Bayern to win both halves, which is trading at -200, and the Over 2.5 in total betting, which is trading at -175 at Bet365. These are the safest options for decent returns. For the more adventurous soccer bettor, we'd draw attention to the Over 3.5, which is matched at +138 at William Hill or the Over 4.5 at +333 also at William Hill.

Soccer Picks: Bayern Munich to win both halves at -200; Over 2.5 at -175

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