UCL Soccer Picks: Back Arsenal To Score at Camp Nou At Value Odds!

Bernardo Baltazar

Tuesday, March 15, 2016 8:47 PM GMT

The two nil win of Barcelona at Emirates Stadium will be very hard to turn but the Gunners will be at Camp Nou this Wednesday to at least try it.

Barcelona and their offensive football lead by MSN continues giving fruits, week after week and, even without Suarez playing in last La Liga match, they have managed to win it by 6-0. In 2016, Barcelona is proving to be the greatest score machine, with an incredible average of 4.44 goals scored on their last 9 games at home, while their overall record is 3.25 goals scored per match in 20 games, which are still amazing numbers. 

Lately, their defensive consistency is also better, with only 11 goals conceded on the same 20 matches. What is even more impressive is the way they managed to win to nil several games, even on matches where they could relax due to the goals difference achieved early in those games.

For this match Piqué, who is a big pillar of Barcelona’s defense, is out due to suspension.

Arsenal arrives this match after lose the chance to win the only trophy they could still achieve this season, the FA Cup where they have been defeated  by Watford at home.

The team’s morale levels are very low and this can be considered a David vs Goliath challenge, not only to win the match but also to recover from a two goals deficit at Camp Nou against this strong Barcelona.

Arsenal’s supporters are tired of Wenger's Kingdom, they already said him “Good Bye”, and we really believe this should be the last season of the French coach as Gunners manager.

The Gunners will play this game with their feelings hurt and knowing that they only way to save their season is to recover from the first leg result and reach the next stage of the UCL. Therefore, we should expect a very intense game with their heart beating on their feet.

 

Betting Overview
To approach this game we should have in mind that Barcelona does not need to win this game, due to their 2-0 triumph at the Emirates Stadium.

After analyzing the winners market, sportsbooks expectation for the host team to win this clash by 3 goals is too much in our opinion, especially after the clear advantage achieved on the previous match in England.

With that in mind, neither the straight win or the AH provides us enough value to bet on this match because Barcelona might take advantage of Arsenal’s exposure and desperation on the 2nd half. This makes it a bit unpredictable and we don’t want to have our money involved on these markets.

We just have some value on the HT Asian handicap for Arsenal, with +0.75 priced @+112 Pinnacle and +1.00 priced @-147 Betvictor. For us, is very likely that Arsenal does not reach half time losing the game and if they do, a loss by one goal can be saved with AH+1.00.

We will take our top play on this game on the goals markets. Suarez will be hunger for goals after returning from a one-week pause, especially after the several misses he had at the Emirates Stadium. The Uruguayan will try to redeem himself for it; however, the price for him to score at any time is too low at -147.

On other hand, Arsenal will try it all to get out of this aggregate with at least an honor goal scored and, with Piqué out for this match, their chances of doing it clearly increase. It’s also clear that Arsenal vs. Top teams just failed to score on the road once this season 

They failed to score at Chelsea (2-0) back in September 2015, but they scored at Bayern Munchen (5-1), Liverpool (3-3), Man United (3-2), Tottenham (2-2) and (0-3) vs Olympiakos. The last game against the Greeks can also be considered a big game on the UCL group stage because it decided who would go through to the next stage.

Looking at these numbers plus the defensive miss of Barcelona, as well as, the possible more relaxed approach Barcelona can have on this game, our soccer pick will be on Arsenal to do a goal @-117 Pinnacle and/or the both teams to score @-108 888sport.

Also a note for a parallel market: after a low-scoring 1st half on the first leg the same might happen here, especially because Arsenal should expose more as long as the time goes by. This fact makes the market Highest Scoring Half? 2nd @2.05 at Bwin at valuable soccer odds that also deserves to be on our betting slip for this UCL game!

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Free UCL Picks: Arsenal to score Over 0.5 goals & Highest Scoring Half - Second half
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle & bwin respectively