Jordan’s WNBA Picks 36-38-2
Seattle Storm at New York Liberty
I was all prepared to take the points with the Liberty until I saw the injury report of this one. Amanda Zahui B is set to sit due to a concussion and Asia Durr is also out Sunday with a groin injury.
While Tina Charles and Kia Nurse will still be active and shouldering very large loads offensively, outside of those two, the Liberty will be really thin on offense.
Combine that with one of the worst defenses in the W and you have a nice value with the road favorites.
Zahui B being out means Charles will have to check Natasha Howard for large portions of Sunday’s game, which could limit her effectiveness on offense.
With that in mind, I’m going to lay the points here, but I think a better play might be the first half over.
In their first game against one another Zahui B was over playing in EuroBasket. These two teams played a fast-paced and high scoring contest, which came down to the wire.
I think we could see a similarly styled game when it comes to pace, especially in the first half.
The Liberty play at a pace over 100 in the first half this season and they are allowing 102.5 points per 100 possessions.
The Storm are a strong defense, but they take a big downgrade on the road and in the first half. Seattle is allowing 100 points per 100 possessions in the first halves of their road games.
I do think Seattle’s defense will eventually buckle down in the second half of this one, so I’m putting a couple units on the over and one on the Storm for the game.
Chicago Sky at LA Sparks
We have made a lot of money this season betting the over on the first half of Sky games, and that’s been especially true on the road. Now they are playing a surging Sparks team and with pace likely high and defense probably sparse on the side of Chicago, the over is once again calling me.
Chicago has now allowed an average of 111.9 points per 100 possessions in the first halves of their road games. All of this is while they play at a pace of just over 99 in those first halves.
The Sparks are already average nearly 103 points per 100 possessions in the first halves of their home games, and playing at a pace similar to Chicago’s.
They’ve only met once this season, but outside of a poor second quarter from the Sky, that first half was high-scoring with a combined score of 84 points.
Considering the Sky have upped their first half pace to 103.2 over their last five games, and considering how well the Sparks have been playing lately, I’d be surprised to see one of these teams fall below 40 first half points.