Two Ways To Win With UFC 197 Picks On Jones vs. Saint Preux

Swinging Johnson

Tuesday, April 19, 2016 3:09 PM GMT

Tuesday, Apr. 19, 2016 3:09 PM GMT

OSP will lock horns with Jon Bones Jones in what is a title elimination match for the light heavyweight crown. Let’s review the UFC odds and choose the best ways to cash in on this fight.

UFC Prop Odds
Jon Jones – By KO or Submission (-550)
Jon Jones – By KO or on Points (-162)
Jon Jones – By Submission or on Points (-115)
Ovince Saint Preux – By KO or Submission (+450)
Ovince Saint Preux – By KO or on Points (+500)
Ovince Saint Preux – By Submission or on Points (+800)

***Visit Our Props Page For Jon Jones vs. Ovince Saint Preux***

What Won’t Happen
The UFC odds on Ovince Saint Preux, aka OSP, submitting or decisioning Jon Jones are enticing to say the least. Who wouldn’t want an 8-1 payback in their UFC picks? But the unfortunate reality is that OSP won’t be doing either when the two elite light heavyweights do battle on Saturday night.

While the optimists can point to Saint Preux’s five submissions, the fact of the matter is that he did so against a karate specialist in Ryan Jimmo via a Von Flue choke, which is essentially a shoulder choke, and another against a young, lower tiered UFC fighter in Nikita Krylov. A third submission came by virtue of a verbal tapout over Joe Carson in Strikeforce where OSP was wailing away and Carson said no mas, which is classified as a submission instead of a TKO. The other two occurred over six years ago against novice fighters. Thus, you can make the argument Saint Preux has the skills to earn a submission the same way I can declare I can hit a homerun in a major league park…as long as it sits on a tee.

Jon Jones has never been submitted and he has fought against some of the most skilled mat technicians on the planet. OSP does not orbit in that rarified air. As for Saint Preux winning on points, I am even less inclined to believe that. If OSP does go the distance with Jones he will be taken down to the mat early and often, ground-and-pounded until those searing elbows bloody him from forehead to chin and will be deemed lucky if he is able to withstand five rounds. He won’t but if he does, it will be a unanimous decision for Jones not the other way around.

The only way OSP wins the day is if he catches Jones clean and knocks him silly. Saint Preux is equipped with the requisite power to score an upset in this fashion but no one else has been able to do so and I would give Anthony Rumble Johnson a far better chance than OSP. Alas, it’s a no go on Saint Preux winning this fight in any way, shape or form. Now we turn to Jon Jones and his method of victory.

 

Jones Wins Via…
If you are predisposed to JBJ winning by KO or submission then for the luvva gawd don’t lay -550 on this prop when you can bet him flat to win by any method at -495 at BetDSI.com. That’s why we shop around and do our homework. Chances are Jones will win the finish OSP and if that is the case we can all get down on JBJ at BetDSI.com and wait for Saturday night.

However, there is a case to be made that anything can happen on any given night inside the Octagon and the less our risk the better off we will be. Therefore, we must determine whether Jones will knock OSP out or submit him. It was only eight months ago that Glover Teixeira earned a technical submission over Saint Preux and a repeat could be looming. However, I am more apt to believe that Jones will simply punish him with strikes once he takes him to the mat. Eventually, the referee will have seen enough and call a stop to the proceedings. Therefore, our best bet here is Jones by KO with a decision as our backup plan.

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Free UFC Pick: Jones by KO or on Points -162
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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