Jordan’s WNBA Picks 39-38-2
Minnesota Lynx at New York Liberty
We cashed an over play on the Liberty and their broken defense in their last game and I’m back again for some more over action for several reasons.
The first being the injuries for both teams. It looks like Amanda Zahui B will once again miss tonight, which really hurts the Liberty’s defense and rebounding in the middle. On top of that, rookie star Asia Durr has also already been ruled out. This one hurts a potential over play a little, but the Liberty still have enough offense to carry them over at home against this Lynx team.
On the flip side. Damiris Dantas is questionable for the Lynx, which could mean two of the better frontcourt defenders for each team could be out of this one.
On top of all this is the pace and lack of defense these two teams should play with. New York is allowing a league-worst 102.8 defensive rating, and while that does get better at home, it does not improve in the first halves of their games.
New York is allowing 103 points per 100 possessions in first halves this season and the Lynx actually play at the fourth-fastest first half pace this season among all 12 teams. That could lead to a lot of easy buckets for the Lynx.
Taking a look at the last five games for both clubs and you can see some other signs pointing to a high scoring first half. The Liberty have a first half defensive rating of 113.9, while the Lynx are at nearly 100.
Combine all of this and you have a first half ripe with potential for points. I’m amazed the total has dropped like it has, but take advantage of it with a first half over play.
- My Pick: OVER 1H
- Recommended Sportsbook: Pinnacle
Atlanta Dream At Las Vegas Aces
The Aces ran over the Dream in their first meeting of the season in Atlanta, and there isn’t much standing in their way of doing it again at home on Tuesday evening.
Even with A’ja Wilson still sitting out, the Aces have more than enough to dispatch this Dream team without Wilson on the court.
Assuming the Aces don’t let up on this one early on, I think they are a pretty good first half play. They limited the Dream to only 25 first half points in their first meeting and that was before the Aces’ defense even got locked in.
Offense in general, but first half offense has been especially tough for the Dream this season. Atlanta is averaging just 86.2 first half points per 100 possessions, which is easily the worst in the WNBA. On the road it gets even worse, dropping to 83.5.
The Aces on the other hand own the league’s best first half defense, so combine all these things and you have a solid chalk play on the Aces in the first half. I think the Dream will put up a good fight, but ultimately, the Aces will want to put this one away early.
Atlanta has also been in some higher scoring first halves lately, so there may be room for a first half over play in this one too. They have played at a 1H pace over 100 in their last five games, and along with their most recent opponents, are averaging a combined 76.1 points per first half.
- My Pick: Aces 1H ATS
- Recommended Sportsbook: Bookmaker