Jordan’s WNBA Picks 8-14-1
Chicago Sky at Las Vegas Aces
Youth day has made its way to Las Vegas today, as the Aces host the Chicago Sky to town in a noon local start. Chicago is a good team and they have some talented players, but as we’ve noted before, turnovers and their lack of defense keeps them from covering or winning games they could easily compete in.
Chicago ranks 10th in the league in TOV% at nearly 20% and 9th in defensive rating, allowing almost 100 points per 100 possessions. The other three teams that rank worse defensively have combined records of 12-24. If Chicago can’t clean those two areas up, they will likely not be able to make the playoffs, despite all of their young talent and upside on offense.
That being said, the Aces rank roughly the same in the number of turnovers per game they commit, as well as their opponent’s points off turnovers per game. These two teams allow about 17 points per game off their own turnovers, so if that happens again here in this afternoon game, we could see a game with plenty of points.
The Aces already play at the league’s fastest first half pace and combined with the Sky’s scoring in the paint and the Sky giving up a ton of second-chance points because of their poor defensive rebounding, both teams should get on the break and get some easy buckets in the paint early. With Chicago’s defense playing poorly lately, I think the first half over is the play in this matinee contest.
My Pick: Over 1H
Best Line Offered: Bovada
Atlanta Dream at Minnesota Lynx
The Dream has had a rough first 10 games of the season and it’s not getting any easier tonight on the road in Minnesota. The Dream have had trouble on both ends of the court, but especially on defense, where they are allowing 102.4 points per 100 possessions.
However, the Lynx are losing role players left and right. Their most recent injury to Damiris Dantas is probably going to go underrated tonight too. Dantas is having a great season and is one of four Lynx players averaging double figures. However, she is doubtful for Minnesota tonight, which could leave their frontcourt very thin.
The Lynx have already lost Jessica Shepard for the season, so outside of Sylvia Fowles, the Lynx will be very thin up front tonight without Dantas.
The Lynx already rank in the top five in home offensive rating this season, while the Dream are giving up 109.1 points per 100 possessions in their three road games.
Minnesota’s injuries do concern me enough to lay off them in the full game odds though. However, their first-half spread of -3.5 looks inviting.
Minnesota has a home defensive rating of 87.6 in the first halves at home this season, while the Dream’s DRtg on the road in the first half is 107.5. I’ll lay 3.5 points all day with those analytics discrepancies, even with the Lynx’s injuries.
My Pick: Lynx 1H ATS
Best Line Offered: Pinnacle