Triple Crown Betting: 2016 Preakness Stakes Preview & Free Picks

Kevin Stott

Thursday, May 19, 2016 2:22 PM GMT

The second leg of the Horse Racing’s Triple Crown, the Preakness Stakes, is scheduled to take place this Saturday afternoon at historic Pimlico Race Track. Check our best horse picks.

Here We Go Again or Why The Preakness Stakes Absolutely Loathes Being the Middle Child
On Saturday, the 141st Preakness Stakes (G1) is set to takes place from historic Pimlico Race Track in Baltimore, Maryland with Kentucky Derby-winner Nyquist attempting to win the 1 and 3/16ths mile second leg of Horse Racing’s Triple Crown under some potentially Rainy and miserable conditions on the Eastern Seaboard of the US. Heading into this prestigious Race, the 3-year-old colt is a perfect and unbeaten 8-for-8 in his career, only trailing one time in those eight races (San Vicente Stakes). And as if often falls, this particular Preakness Stakes could be a little anticlimactic with only 11 Horses entered and scheduled to run in the Race—there were 20 in the Kentucky Derby—and a couple of solid potential entrants already (Wednesday) ruled out including Kentucky Derby 3rd-place finisher Gun Runner (was 10/1 in Futures Book, Bovada), 5th-place Derby finisher Suddenbreakingnews and 7th-place Derby finisher Brody’s Cause as well as Dazzling Gem (was 25/1 in Futures Book, Bovada), Mor Spirit and 4th-place Derby finisher Mohaymen. And if the extremely talented Exaggerator (3/1, Morning Line weren’t still in the Field for this Race, the Doug O’Neill-trained Bay Colt jockeyed by Mario Gutierrez and named after (NHL) Detroit Red Wings’ player Gustav Nyquist would possibly smoke this Field and make for both a boring Race, Race-day and Sports Betting event for many. So even though it will be Nyquist (8-0-0, W-P-S) who will be getting his name thrown around the most from between now and Saturday evening, it’s maybe Trainer Kent Desormeaux and Derby 2nd-place finisher Exaggerator (1-2-1) and maybe Stradivari we should be thanking for simply being in this and making this a potentially memorable (and maybe profitable) endeavor.

 

2016 Preakness Stakes Information
What: 141st Preakness Stakes
Where: Pimlico Race Track, Baltimore, Maryland
Distance: 1 3/16 miles (9.5 furlongs)
Track: Left-handed
Turf: Dirt
When: Saturday, May 21, 2016
TV Coverage: NBC (Streamed live on NBCSports.com)
NBC TV Coverage Start Time: 5 p.m. EDT/4 p.m. CDT/2 p.m. PDT
Race Post Time: 6:45 p.m. ET/5:45 CDT/3:45 p.m. PDT
Preakness Stakes Race Number: 13
TV Undercard Coverage: NBCSN (1:30 p.m. EDT/10:30 a.m. PDT)
Main Undercard Race: Dixie Stakes (Grade 2, Turf, 1 1/16 miles, $300,000)
Purse: $1,500,000
Track Record: Secretariat, 1973 (1:53.00)
Track Conditions Link: Pimlico Track Conditions
Fun Fact: Five Fillies have won the Preakness Stakes, including Rachel Alexandra in 2009, the only Horse to win this race from the 13th Post position.
Preakness Stakes Handicappers Preview Special: Friday, May 20—TVG, 10:30 p.m.
Black-Eyed Susan: Black-Eyed Susan Streaming Video Link (Friday)
TWC Baltimore Weather Channel Forecast Saturday: High—58°
Rainy, 100% Chance of Rain (Rainfall may reach 1 inch), Winds ENE 10-15 mph.

 

2016 Preakness Field Post Positions—(Jockey) Morning Line Odds

1—Cherry Wine (Corey Lanerie) 20/1
2—Uncle Lino (Fernando Pérez) 20/1
3—Nyquist (Mario Gutierrez) 3/5
4—Awesome Speed (Jevian Toledo) 30/1
5—Exaggerator (Kent Desormeaux) 3/1
6—Lani (Yutaka Take) 30/1
7—Collected (Javier Castellano) 10/1
8—Laoban (Ricardo Santana Jr.) 30/1
9—Abiding Star (JD Acosta) 30/1
10—Fellowship (Jose Lezcano) 30/1
11—Stradivari (John Velazquez) 8/1

 

Black-Eyed Susan Stakes Entrants, Saddle Cloth Numbers, Morning Line Odds, Pick
A full field of 14 3-year-old Fillies will partake in the 92nd running of the 1 and 1/8th mile (G2), $250,000 Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (NBCSN, 4:50 p.m. EDT/1:50 p.m. PDT) at Pimlico Race Track on Friday afternoon (Race 11), the big race on Black-Eyed Susan Day at the Racetrack and this year’s Race looks like it could be a lot like the Preakness Stakes itself in that it could evolve into a two- to four-horse Race with Land Over Sea (L3 Beyer Ratings: 91-88-88)—a stablemate of Derby winner Nyquist—and Go Maggie Go (L3 Beyer Ratings: 90-88-76) being the two favorites with Kentucky Oaks winner Cathryn Sophia passing on this Race eating Hay and Oats in her barn at Monmouth Park in Oceanport, New Jersey. With 2-to-1 betting odds favorite Land Over Sea being a stablemate of Nyquist and ridden by the same jockey (Mario Gutierrez) and having a very nice race two weeks ago in the Kentucky Oaks (2nd Place, 5/1 Pre-race odds) despite getting bumped down the stretch and the Oaks winner not here, backing the chalk again here in some form seems logical and expect a much better trip this time from jockey Gutierrez who may have a chance to pull off the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes-Preakness Stakes double riding the O’Neill-trained Land Over Sea on Friday and Nyquist on Saturday. Here are the Post Positions, Horses and Jockeys and Morning Line odds for Friday’s Black-Eyed Susan at Pimlico Race Track:

 

2016 Black-Eyed Susan Field Post Positions—(Jockey) Morning Line Odds

1—AP Majestic (Victor Carrasco) 30/1
2—Dothraki Queen (Julien R. Leparoux) 15/1
3—Land Over Sea 3/5 (Mario Gutierrez) 2/1
4—Ma Can Do It (Brian Hernandez) 30/1
5—Go Maggie Go (Luis Saez) 5/2
6—She’s A Warrior (Gary Stevens) 6/1
7—Downdraft (Angel Cruz) 30/1
8—Double Entendre (Scott Spieth) 30/1
9—Midnight On Oconee (Gabriel Saez) 15/1
10—Kinsley Kisses (John Velazquez) 6/1
11—In The Navy Now (Trevor McCarthy) 30/1
12—Flora Dora (Junior Alvarado) 30/1
13—CCed (Florent Geroux) 15/1
14—Mom’s On Strike (Joe Rocco Jr.) 15/1

 

Chalky Preakness Stakes Picks and More Odd-Numbered Winners? Our Survey Says Yes...
Last year it was American Pharoah who broke a long dry spell without a Horse Racing Triple Crown winner and this year—for Now at least—it’s all about American thoroughbred Nyquist (7/2 to win Triple Crown, at Bet365) and his attempt to become the 13th winner of Triple Crown and the first to do so as an unbeaten Horse since Seattle Slew back in 1973. But if there is any perceived value to be had here on the third Saturday in May, it may be with 2nd-favorite Exaggerator (3/1) which could potentially beat Nyquist if the circumstances are right. But Exaggerator Trainer Desormeaux is o-for-8 lifetime in head-to-head Races against with his Horses (Exaggerator, Swipe) against Nyquist. The heavy 3/5 opening Morning Line odds for Nyquist translates to oddsmakers giving the Horse about a 62.5% chance to have that beautiful ring of Black-Eyed Susans put around his neck with Exaggerator and his 3/1 odds implying around a 25% chance. It’s almost impossible to recommend backing anything but a Horse—owned by J. Paul Reddam—who has won every race he’s ever run and who has only trailed once and the word on the street (track) is that San Vicente Stakes and Florida Derby winner just Nyquist doesn’t like running from behind. So he gets ahead. And with such a great pedigree (Curlin), so much earnings and being the first G1 Horse to W3 straight Races as a 2-year-old since Foolish Pleasure, this Horse has the potential to be a legend.

This seems like it will be a two- to four-horse Race from this distance and it’s hard to imagine Nyquist blowing out Exaggerator no matter what the Weather conditions and keying off a 3-5 (Win-Place) finish here seems like a simple approach and one many may take. If this scenario unfolds, picking the Show (3rd-place) and 4th-place Horse(s) will be the key to finding any decent payday in this Parimutuel format where many infrequent bettors will be backing the two heavy chalks in Nyquist and Exaggerator. So, “Who’s finishes in 3rd place?” may be the big question Saturday and for oddsmakers, that answer is the John Velazquez-ridden Stradivari (8/1). Or maybe Speedway Stables and Kentucky-bred, chestnut colt Collected (10/1)—jockeyed by Javier Castellano—ends up making some noise on Saturday afternoon in Crab City should No. 11 post Stradivari fail to impress but with an 11-length win at Gulfstream and a 14½-length win at Keeneland in a 1 and 1/8 mile allowance makes this Todd Pletcher-trained Horse one to watch and one that could surprise on Saturday in Baltimore in the potentially nasty conditions. One thing’s for certain: Again, the odd-numbered Horses in this Field are way better than the even-numbered ones and something to remember when putting your wagers together this weekend.

Some random Superfecta (First 4 Horses in correct order) combinations—besides the 3-5-11-7 Nyquist-Exaggerator-Stradivari-Collected top choice with Nyquist winning over Exaggerator—for this Race with the No. 5 Exaggerator and jockey Desormeaux topping the No. 3 Nyquist and Gutierrez like 3-5-7-11, 5-3-7-11, 5-3-11-7, 5-3-11-1 and maybe 3-11-5-7 or 3-5-11-2 may be worth a throw. And although all are as chalky as bets can be, remember that the first four favorites all finished in odds order in the Kentucky Derby, so this looks like a case of the Haves and Have Nots and a pretty weak field for such a highly anticipate Race each year with so many Owners pulling out or passing on this second leg of the Triple Crown after either 1—Losing on Kentucky Derby Day, or 2—Realizing they just don’t have enough Horse to realistically compete with last years Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Nyquist and the extremely powerful and fast Curlin-pedigreed Exaggerator. Best of Luck to all.

 

PREAKNESS STAKES WINNER PICK: Nyquist (3/5, Morning Line)
PREAKNESS TRIFECTA: Nyquist-Exaggerator-Stradivari [3-5-11]
PREAKNESS SUPERFECTA PICK: Nyquist-Exaggerator-Stradivari-Collected [3-5-11-7]
BLACK-EYED SUSAN STAKES WINNER PICK: Land Over Sea [3]