Week 2 of the English Premier League is almost in the books and it went off without anything too out of the ordinary. Liverpool was able to squeak by on the road vs Southampton, City and Spurs played to a 2-2 draw and Chelsea continued their early struggles vs Leicester in a 1-1 draw at home.
For all teams with 2 games in the books, only Liverpool and Arsenal remain without a loss or draw. On the flip side, at the bottom of the table Watford, Southampton, Newcastle, and Aston Villa are without a win or draw after two matches. As for the winless teams West Ham, Chelsea, Crystal Palace, and Leicester are all with at least a draw, but no wins. With the poor start, Chelsea moves out of the top 5 futures pool and is replaced by Arsenal. On the flip side, Bournemouth is the only team to move out of the bottom 5 outrights. They are replaced by Watford who moves down into the bottom 5 futures pool.
+EV Trends: 2019 vs 2018
The most profitable trend to ride last year in the EPL was the Home team vs any road favorite. In 2018 bettors backing the home side vs the favored road team went 41-98, +30.74u. An ROI of +0.55% per wager and $100 bettors netted +$22 per bet win or lose. Based on these numbers, my suggested stake when following this trend in 2019 is 1.4% bankroll. However, the trend is ice cold to start in 2019. Going 0-4 to start the season. The road favorite is 3-1, +0.95 so far in 2019. A stat based on a sample size that is not worth anything of value right now. However, going forward if the tide starts to shift on the home underdog in 2019 – adjust accordingly.
Another profitable trend back in 2018 was the short home favorite. Backing the home side with closing odds between -143 and -101, bettors went: 27-15, +7.43u, an ROI of +0.44% per wager and $100 bettors netted +$18 per bet win or lose. Based on these numbers, when riding this trend in 2019 – the recommended stake is 1.1% bankroll. The trend has started the year off going 1-2, -1.17u. I will pay no attention to these numbers until at least 8 games have been played with the desired parameters. Otherwise, continue riding the 2018 trend at a 1.1% stake.
An angle that was surprisingly profitable last year was simply taking the bottom 5 teams on the futures market at the time of the start of the season, and fading them on the Asian Handicap line for their first 8 games; at a line of -110 or better. Bettors backing this trend in 2018 went 20-11-3, +6.94u, an ROI of +0.51% per wager and $100 bettors netted +$20 per bet win or lose. ALTHOUGH. This trend is persona non-grata so far in 2019. I would suggest abandoning it entirely and in fact doing the exact opposite which has proven to be profitable so far.
The bottom 5 teams on the futures market when the season started were: Sheffield UTD, Norwich, Burnley, Brighton, and Bournemouth. All 5 teams have a combined AH record of 6-2, +3.59u (excluding head to head matchups). As I feel the market may be massively undervaluing the lower tier teams this season, I think it may be a good idea to stick with tailing these 5 teams on the Asian Handicap until further notice. A full unit size suggested. 2.5% bankroll.
In fact – the 5 teams mentioned have a combined MONEYLINE record of 5-3, +6.5u so far in 2019. Considering this, you have to strongly take notice of this obvious shift in the measure of expectation. In matches that feature the 5 teams mentioned that make up the bottom 5; it’s either a shot at the Asian Handicap, tailing them on the ML, or simply pass. In my opinion, there is far too much variance occurring to be able to comfortably go against this pattern right now – going forward if things change, adjust accordingly.
On the flip side, you have the top 5 teams on the futures market at the time of season starting. Manchester City, Liverpool. Tottenham, Chelsea, and Manchester United – have a combined record on the AH of 3-2, +1.4u (excluding head to head matches). Last year the top 5 teams on the futures market, for their first 8 games on the Asian line went 15-13-5, +1.38u. Not anything special but still a marginal profit. Those 5 teams also have a combined MONEYLINE record of 4-1, +0.26u. Both of these trend lines have far too little of a sample size to put towards anything besides a simple observation. If this trend continues, this may be a good spot for parlay builders and soccer teasers. We will continue to track.
The home side overall was a profitable side to back in 2018. Backing the home side got you a record of 181-199, +21.06u. So far the same can not be said about the home side in 2019. So far the home side sits at 9-10, -1.96u’s. However, the draw has hit at a fantastic rate so far in 2019. Draw backers have gone 6-13, +3.83u an ROI of +0.50% per wager. I will be keeping an eye on the ROI of flat betting the draw in EPL for the entire season. In some European leagues, the best bet no matter who is playing – is to blindly bet the draw.
Wolves vs. Man United
Wolves come into this match as the home underdogs which, as mentioned – has been a profitable side to back since the start of the 2018 season. However, as also previously mentioned – the ROAD FAVORITE in 2019 has gone 3-1 so far. That doesn’t really matter to me here though. I am sticking to the Home teams vs Road favorites trend. The Wolves are coming off a well-played draw on the road in their opener vs Leicester where they were able to keep scoring chances against to a minimum.
United are coming off a 4-nil romping of Chelsea – who by the early looks of things, are completely out of sorts to start 2019. I take little to relatively nothing from that match, and I take a fair amount away from the Wolves keeping the score sheet clean vs. Leicester last weekend. At an average line globally at around +221. Backing the Wolves at home is the way to go here. A 1.4% stake on the Wolves ML is completely reasonable.
About 75% of the overall action has come in on Man U so far. However, since the start of the 2019 European soccer season, fading the consensus via the ‘Double Chance’ market has been hitting at about an 80% rate. You can get the ‘Wolves/Draw’ at an average line globally around -168 and as high as -150 at some places. Based on the recent success of fading the overall consensus in soccer this season. Staking 2.4% bankroll on the ‘Wolves/Draw’ line, as well as a 1.4% stake on the ML is the proper way to approach this match.
As far as the total goes, the average total for a game so far in 2019 is 2.63 goals. The Over 2.5 has hit at a 58% rate so far (11-8) but has not been profitable (-0.10u). Both teams have scored in 52.5% of the matches so far, but the prop has also not yet been profitable (-1.36u)
My best look for this match without any hesitation is Wolves ML and Wolves/Draw.
Best of luck! Keep on tracking!