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Brad Keselowski, driver of the #6 King's Hawaiian Ford, and Kyle Busch, driver of the #8 Lenovo Chevrolet, lead during the NASCAR Cup Series Ambetter Health 400 at Atlanta Motor Speedway on Mar. 19, 2023 in Hampton, Georgia.
Brad Keselowski, driver of the #6 King's Hawaiian Ford, and Kyle Busch, driver of the #8 Lenovo Chevrolet, lead during the NASCAR Cup Series Ambetter Health 400 at Atlanta Motor Speedway on Mar. 19, 2023 in Hampton, Georgia. Photo by Sean Gardner/Getty Images via AFP.

The NASCAR season's first true short-track race takes place this Sunday at Richmond. From an outright winner selection to some compelling props, we have you covered with our Toyota Owners 400 predictions.

The NASCAR Cup Series returns to the East Coast for some short-track racing action. Richmond Raceway hosts the first of two NASCAR weekends this season with the Toyota Owners 400 taking place Sunday afternoon.

As far as short tracks are concerned, this is the first true race of its kind the Cup Series stars have run this season. To date, Phoenix Raceway is the closest track in distance, but many admit the 1-mile oval drives much more like an intermediate circuit. 

Richmond is the only 0.75-mile track NASCAR uses. The D-shaped oval should provide plenty of action this weekend. Denny Hamlin is the defending race champion while Kevin Harvick was victorious in the second race at Richmond a year ago. In general, Toyota teams fared very well here recently.

Here are our best 2023 Toyota Owners 400 predictions for Sunday’s action at Richmond Raceway (odds via our top-rated sportsbooks; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Toyota Owners 400 best bets

  • Outright winner: Kyle Busch (+950 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐
  • Head-to-head matchup: Denny Hamlin (-110 via DraftKings) vs. Christopher Bell ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Top 5 finish: Alex Bowman (+275 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

Toyota Owners 400 odds

William Byron+550 ❄️+600+600+600+600
Kevin Harvick+550+600+600+525 ❄️+600
Kyle Larson+700 ❄️+750+800+800+800
Christopher Bell+800+800+850 🔥+750 ❄️+800
Denny Hamlin+800+800+800+800+800
Kyle Busch+800+950 🔥+800+750 ❄️+800
Martin Truex Jr.+1000+1000+900+800 ❄️+1000
Tyler Reddick+1500 ❄️+1600+1600+1700 🔥+1600
Ross Chastain+1500+1600+1800 🔥+1500+1600
Alex Bowman+1500+1600+1600+1500+1600
Ryan Blaney+1800+1700+1600+1500 ❄️+2000 🔥
Joey Logano+1800+1700+1600 ❄️+1800+2000 🔥
Chris Buescher+2800+2800+2800+2500+2500
Brad Keselowski+3000+2800+2500 ❄️+3000+3000
Daniel Suarez+4000+4000+4000+3500 ❄️+4000

Toyota Owners 400 predictions

Outright winner: Kyle Busch (+950 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐

The new marriage between Kyle Busch and Richard Childress Racing is off to a tremendous start. The No. 8 Chevrolet already went to victory lane once this year at Fontana and was a top-10 car in all but one race since. If not for a late-restart wreck, Busch also would’ve taken the checkered flag in the Daytona 500. 

Combine Busch’s success out of the gate in 2023 with his impeccable history at Richmond and it’s hard not to love the +950 odds on him to win the Toyota Owners 400. ‘Rowdy’ won outright here six different times in his NASCAR Cup Series career. Two of those victories came in his last 10 starts, a span where he finished ninth or better in every single race!

Busch also has a leg-up on some of the other drivers considered to be contenders as he'll start on the front row after qualifying was rained out. Joe Gibbs Racing dominated Richmond in recent years and Busch was a major part of that. However, there's no reason to believe he won’t continue his success at this track with RCR Sunday.

Compared to other prices, FanDuel’s +950 odds offer up to two full dollars’ worth of value.

Head-to-head matchup: Denny Hamlin (-110 via DraftKings) vs. Christopher Bell ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This head-to-head matchup is very interesting given that it pits a pair of Joe Gibbs Racing teammates against one another. On a weekend where any of the four JGR cars could win, Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell are both priced at -110 in their driver matchup.

To be fair to Bell, his stats in five previous Cup Series starts at Richmond are very solid. After placing 15th in his first start, he rattled off finishes of fourth, third, sixth and second spanning the past two years. Bell also scored the most points of any driver at short tracks last season.

The problem for Bell in this matchup is he's up against a driver who tamed Richmond as well as anyone recently. Not only is Hamlin the defending Toyota Owners 400 winner, but he finished fifth or better in eight of the last 10 races here. His 5.3 average finish over that span leads all drivers.

What’s more, as strong as Bell was at Richmond the past two seasons, Hamlin has largely still been better. His last four finishes include two runner-ups in 2021 to go with a win and a fourth-place showing last year. With four total wins here in his career and a better starting spot Sunday, Hamlin is worth a look in this evenly-priced head-to-head. 

Top 5 finish: Alex Bowman (+275 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

With NASCAR rescinding the points penalty assessed to all Hendrick Motorsports drivers, Alex Bowman reassumed the points lead in the standings. Bowman has yet to win a race this year, but he's quietly been the most consistent driver on a weekly basis. Through six races, the No. 48 Chevrolet already owns a trio of top-5 finishes.

Can Bowman continues his hot start Sunday at Richmond? Well, he does have an outright victory that came in this very race two years ago. Aside from that win, his finishes are a bit lackluster, with only two other top-10s in nine Cup Series starts.

Despite the lack of consistency at Richmond, Bowman is riding a hot hand in the current racing season. He'll also start on the pole for Sunday’s race, giving him a major leg-up when it comes to scoring another top-5 finish.

Those looking to place this wager should do so at BetMGM, where the +275 price on Bowman to finish top-5 offers a considerably better return than DraftKings' +210 odds.

Toyota Owners 400 race info

  • Date: Sunday, April 2, 3:30 p.m. ET
  • Location: Richmond Raceway, Richmond, VA
  • TV: FS1
  • Defending winner: Denny Hamlin

Toyota Owners 400 picks made 4/1/23 at 3:26 p.m. ET

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