Saint-Dié-des Vosges – Colmar
July 10, 2019 Distance: 175.5km
This is a hilly route today that sees the riders take on two Cat 2s and two Cat 3 climbs, the last of which is a reasonably tough 4.6kms at 6.1%. If the break has been reeled in, then expect some teams to try to blow it apart on that final climb and get rid of some of the sprinters, as there are only 16kms to go once they get over the top.
Two winners in a row now, can we make it a hat-trick today on stage 5?
I think the break has a good chance of making it today, but picking a break candidate this early in the race is almost impossible, there could be about 50 guys wanting to get in this break today. It’s going to be a very fast start, so you will need power and determination, and you will also need to be able to climb at the end of the day with three climbs of around 5kms at around 6% to get over. And then maybe sprint from a small group at the finish or pull off a late attack.
Some break lottery candidates: Tim Wellens is in Polka-dots, maybe he will go from Lotto so as to try to take more points and keep the jersey for another day, he will like this profile too and could attack on the final climb, or on the run-in to the finish, he saved his legs today on the run-in, I think he has his eye on tomorrow’s stage.
CCC put Schar in the break today, I thought maybe they’ll try again tomorrow with Serge Pauwels, he looked strong in the Hammer Stavanger and the opening TT, but it’s been over 2 years since he won a race, plus he crashed today and took flesh off his buttocks.. could be a bit sore tomorrow.
Toms Skujins wasn’t feeling so good at the weekend, but he should be better by now, he should like this course too. Cofidis might be looking to send someone in the break too, maybe Stephane Rossetto could go, he has been active already in this race but is 20 mins down.
Total Direct Energie have been very quiet so far, maybe they’ll try to get someone in the break – Rein Taaramae and Niki Terpstra are two likely candidates, with Taaramae preferred, he’s had better results for this than Terpstra this year, is a better climber and a better finisher.
I can’t see anyone from the GC teams going, they will want to save the legs for tomorrow, but there is still a chance of course that the break will not make it, there are certain teams who will be interested in trying to get their men to a sprint finish. The sprinters I don’t think will make it to the final sprint, thanks to that last climb in particular, are Viviani, Groenewegen, Ewan, Greipel, Kristoff, Bonifazio, Nizzolo and Laporte. That leaves Peter Sagan, Michael Matthews, Sonny Colbrelli, Greg Van Avermaet, Jasper Stuyven, Matteo Trentin, Julian Alaphilipe, Fabio Felline and maybe Andrea Pasqualon who can make it to the finish.
Of that lot, it’s going to be a good battle, Peter Sagan will have a great chance to take his first stage win of course, he’s one of the fastest sprinters in the world, but maybe, just maybe some of the sting might be taken out of his legs after such a tough day in the saddle.
It might open the door for Sonny Colbrelli to spring a surprise and take the win at a huge price, he’s got the speed and he’ll probably have the whole team with him to lead him out in the last 5kms – that is if he can get over the final climbs with the leaders.
Michael Matthews and Matteo Trentin won’t be far off either, Matthews is a good e/w bet at +1000. I’m adding a few breakaway lottery picks too at big prices to see if we can get some in the break of the day.
0.5pts e/w on Sonny Colbrelli at +6600 at Bovada
1pt e/w on Michael Matthews at +1000
1pt win on Tim Wellens at +1600 at Bovada
0.2pts win on Rein Taaramae at +40000
0.2pts win on Toms Skujins at +20000 at Bovada