Tour de France Stage 4 Betting Tips

Monday, July 9, 2018 7:01 PM UTC

Monday, Jul. 9, 2018 7:01 PM UTC

In the third sprint stage of the Tour, will we see another Sagan or Gaviria win, or can someone else make their mark?

<h2>The Route</h2><p>A horseshoe-shaped route that heads east from La Baule and travels inland for about 90 kilometres before turning north and then west to head back to the coast again at Sarzeau. It looks pretty flat on the profile, but as this is Brittany, the route is littered with little hills.</p><p>The last 97kms take them back in a westerly direction to the coast and there could well be a strong headwind against them all the way to the line, making it a very hard finish for a break to stay away. The final 2kms sees the road rise up slightly, at a gradient of around 1.3% -- not a lot, but it might just suit some more than others.</p><p><img alt src="" /></p><h2>Contenders and Favourites</h2><p>This should be another sprint finish, but the headwind on the way home and the finishing straight will make it a bit more tricky. The sprinters will have to time their move right, as too long with the wind in their faces could see them passed in the dying strides.</p><p>A strong and confident leadout time will be crucial here, and judging by the way the team has been performing and the way he sprinted on Saturday, <a href="" title="Free Sports Picks">Fernando Gaviria has to be right up there in the short list</a>, given the powerful leadout train at his disposal. Max Richeze is one of the best in the last kilometre and he’ll have to be at his best here to drop him off with 250m or so to go, Gaviria is one of the best at going long.</p><p>Sonny Colbrelli came very close on Sunday and he’ll like this finish, he won a stage in the Tour de Suisse on a finish that sloped up at 1.3%, same as this one. <a href="" title="Sports Betting Odds">At +$2500 he looks a good price to podium</a>, at worst.</p><p>Peter Sagan is on fire as usual and has now got a 1st and a 2nd to his name in two sprint stages, as well as a stint in the yellow jersey. He has a strong team to get him to the last kilometre, and then he just takes over surfing wheels and pouncing with his immense power. He should be close again Tuesday too, but +$330 is a bit short I think.</p><p>Arnaud Demare was unlucky Sunday, puncturing late in the race but chasing back on and did incredibly well just to be involved in the sprint. He tried to go early but faded in to 3rd spot. With a better run this time he might go close too.</p><p>Dylan Groenewegen has been anonymous so far, a mixture of bad luck, a bad leadout and bad legs has seen him miss Sunday’s sprint and come from way too far back on Saturday to eventually finish 6th. He did well though to get up from where he was on Saturday to 6th, if he gets a cleaner leadout this time and can time his sprint well he could land the stage.. But do we risk him at just +$550 after what we’ve seen so far?</p><p>Andre Greipel, John Degenkolb Mark Cavendish and Michael Matthews have just not been good enough so far, and I can’t see them stepping up to land a place here tomorrow, unless we get another crash or disrupted run-in to the sprint.</p><p>It looks like it’s Gaviria’s to lose again though, his team will love this run-in with the long straights, and he should power away from the head of the field to take his second stage win. Colbrelli offers the value at 25/1 for a place.</p><p> </p><h2>Selections:</h2><p>2pts win on Fernando Gaviria at +$165</p><p>0.5pts each-way on Sonny Colbrelli at +$2500</p><p> </p><h2>Matchbets</h2><p>Colbrelli to beat Demare – 1pt at +$225</p><p>Greipel to beat Cavendish, Matthews to beat Cort Neilsen and Richeze to beat Boasson Hagen – 1pt at +$175</p>
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