It’s a reasonably short stage, some 50kms less than Monday’s and doesn’t really have anything on the profile to trouble the riders, but there will still be a lot of nervousness as the winds could be a problem in that section from 80kms to go to 36kms to go. The finish is reasonably uncomplicated, so expect a fast bunch sprint in Toulouse.
The riders come back after the rest day and face another nervous day in the saddle as they continue heading towards the big mountains in the distance, the Pyrenees.
We could see some teams try to break it up in the crosswinds again, but also, they might call a truce knowing what they face in the coming days and will just want to get through this one safely. Besides, all teams will be burned by what happened in the crosswinds on Monday, so there will be a big battle to stay at the front of the peloton all day.
Elia Viviani came so very close again Monday, the look on his face when he saw Wout Van Aert beat him said it all. He should have his full leadout back with him, he only had Richeze on Monday, and if he can reproduce his best sprint from the best leadout he could be very hard to beat again.
Dylan Groenewegen was surprisingly the favorite for stage 10 and was heavily backed, but he got dropped in the cross-wind carnage. He was the fastest on stage 10 though and if he has Wout Van Aert back leading him out and he is feeling ok then he has to be close again… But he had a hard day today too and I’m not backing him at just +175.
Caleb Ewan just keeps knocking at the door, but just cannot get the win. He is incredibly consistent though, with his top 3 places, and I think he will be top 3 again Wednesday. He will have his whole leadout back to work for him again, he was all on his own at the finish today, and he should go close again.
Michael Matthews blew a great job by his team in the last 2kms, he was too slow to start his sprint and he was too slow to get going. But when he did get going he finished very fast and passed Sagan and Philipsen and almost caught Ewan for 3rd. If he can follow someone else and not his slow leadout, and starts his sprint a bit sooner he could come close to landing a podium at tasty odds of 33/1.
Peter Sagan continues to struggle to land a place, he is incredibly consistent too, landing top 5 places on every single ‘sprinter’ stage, but except for the very tough stage 5 which had killed off the legs of his rivals. I think it will be similar tomorrow, he will be top 5 or 6, but will find the faster guys too fast again.
Matteo Trentin, Sonny Colbrelli, and Alexander Kristoff will come close, but won’t be in the first three, they will be fighting it out for places 5 to 10.
This is going to be another great sprint battle, there have been five different winners of the five sprint finishes so far, an amazing stat. Groenewegen is too short for me at +175, he could be tired after today. Ewan would probably prefer a longer, tougher day, but won’t be far off, but I think Elia Viviani will get it right this time and take his second stage win.
2pts win on Elia Viviani at +200 with Betway
Ewan to beat Sagan – 3pts at -175
Kristoff to beat Nizzolo and Pasqualon to beat Garcia Cortina – 2pts on the double at +120